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   Strategies & Market TrendsA.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board


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From: OldAIMGuy2/2/2023 2:52:39 PM
   of 18881
 
The January Rally helped make for some pretty pictures:

10 Individual Company Stock composite


International "Style" type ETF composite portfolio


U.S. Business Sector ETF composite portfolio


Contributory Simple Retirement Account


Best wishes for the rest of the Year!,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy2/5/2023 12:08:57 PM
   of 18881
 
Negative returns
for most of this 15 years.
Central Bank Warfare....



Prior to the New Millennium the 13 Week Treasury Rate was usually around 1 basis point above the CPI Inflation Rate. That all changed with new Treasury and FED policy brought on after the DotCom bubble. Since then, and specifically since 2008's 'financial crisis', fixed income investors have had a hard time creating a positive real rate of return. The FED and the U.S. Treasury seem to be waging war on senior citizens.
When will we see interest rates return to their historic trend of being higher than inflation?



It's nice to have Cash finally being a reasonable lubricant in our AIM engines. While not great, it's far better than it was during most of the last two decades.




For almost all of the New Millennium we've had negative real return on Cash as Inflation has been higher than Interest on short term treasuries, and that's harmful to AIM's total return. Even so, there's always a cost for insurance, even Portfolio Insurance. AIM insists we own some through most markets. That's okay, I wouldn't own a car or a house without insurance, either.


Best wishes,
OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy2/25/2023 10:07:20 AM
   of 18881
 
Re: v-Wave histogram...........................



It's hanging right around its Median value since 1982. Potential and Risk balancing act.

Best wishes,
OAG

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From: OldAIMGuy3/13/2023 1:18:38 PM
   of 18881
 
I put up a new haiku today relative to crypto. It seemed fitting!

Extraordinary
Popular Delusions And
The Madness Of Crowds



Is this 'Chapter 666' of this book?
What the Devil is going on here?

OAG Tom
amazon.com

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From: OldAIMGuy4/17/2023 3:24:49 PM
   of 18881
 
Seeing Convergence
inflation and ST Rates
offers us some hope




Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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From: OldAIMGuy4/24/2023 11:15:39 AM
   of 18881
 
I neglected to post my various portfolios activity through the end of March. Here they are:

9 International ETFs (Style)


My Sandbox 10 common stock portfolio


U.S. Sector ETF portfolio


Contributory IRA account

(Using a modified Twinvest formula for monthly additions)

Most of these were in "Hover" mode for March.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy5/29/2023 3:25:32 PM
   of 18881
 
Note this week how far the NASDAQ Comp. has moved in relation to the Dow 30 and to a lesser extent, the S&P 500.

youtu.be



Best wishes on Memorial Day,
OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy6/1/2023 2:14:21 PM
   of 18881
 
May has gone but without much change. YTD is still looking okay for most of these portfolios.
AIM continues to give good guidance on the use of the cash and the accumulation of shares.


(Cash Reserve = 16%)


(Cash Reserve = 10%)


(Cash Reserve = 22%)


(Cash Reserve = 18%)

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From: OldAIMGuy6/15/2023 8:15:21 AM
   of 18881
 
With the markets teasing my GTC Sell orders, this song came to mind!

youtube.com

A sign of a bull market is that "Good News" is treated like good news and "Bad News" is treated like good news.
A sign of a bear market is that "Good News" is treated like bad news and "Bad News" is treated like bad news.
The FED didn't raise rates (good news?) and the markets turn downward.
The FED said it is considering two more rate hikes (bad news?) and the market futures have turned downward.

Hmmmmm. It's looking more like a bear market might be creeping up on us!

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

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From: OldAIMGuy7/13/2023 7:03:02 PM
2 Recommendations   of 18881
 
Here's the view at the Half Year mark.........................................

International ETFs Composite Account

The Cash Reserve is slowly increasing as the ETFs recover from the 2022 bearish period.

U.S. Business Sector ETFs Composite Account

As with the International portfolio the U.S. Domestic account is slowly rebuilding the cash reserves as the invested portion recovers.

Tom's 10 Stock "Sandbox" Portfolio

The real surprise here is that this is the least diversified of the portfolios and yet it seems to have suffered the least during the 2022 downturn. Here, too, the cash is recovering nicely after working hard during the turn down.

Tom's Simple Contributory IRA (managed with AIM's cousin, Twinvest)

Similar to Dollar Cost Averaging, Twinvest takes one's periodic additions and splits the allocation between the growth component and the cash reserve. Here again we see that both positions are recovering nicely from the 2022 swoon.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

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