A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board | Stock Discussion Forums

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

Previous 10 Next 10

To: jaser20 who wrote (18804)	12/13/2022 10:00:51 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	of 18917

Hi Jeff, Re: Excel AIM template..................... That looks very nice and comprehensive. My computer AIMing started with Lotus 123 a long time ago. Eventually we put together Newport in '93 and it was available and worked great until early in the new Millennium. It wouldn't run on anything newer than an XP platform so that finished it off. I still run Newport on an ancient XP computer and it does the trick for lots of things. I just don't let it access the internet. Something that would work on a modern Excel spreadsheet would be welcome both here and on InvestorsHub, I'm sure. Thanks for the preview, OAG Tom

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (18805)	12/14/2022 8:17:33 AM
From: jaser20	1 Recommendation of 18917

Hi Tom, certainly. I can post it somewhere to share. I am still working on automating it better but doing calculations manually also helps me understand the AIM numbers better for now.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read

From: OldAIMGuy	12/23/2022 11:27:47 AM
	1 Recommendation of 18917

Fish swim in large schools. They need to be careful when swimming in small pools! Options trading has clouded the waters during this final period of 2022. Happy New Year - 2023 OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (18807)	12/26/2022 12:39:33 PM
From: Zen Dollar Round	of 18917

Next year will be harder to predict, I predict. :-) Yes, goes back to Warren Buffett's quote about buying when there's "blood in the streets" and profiting from that. Pretty amazing from a guy who said for decades he didn't understand the tech stocks or that market. It it is hard when the PE ratios and other traditional measures of a company's value and growth prospects are so out of whack in the beginning when they start out and for a decade or more in the cases for the ones that survive, like Amazon. Buffett's rules still apply though, as do the ones for measuring a company's growth prospects and future value. I'd say Mr. Buffett is a successful investor in the eyes of most people. He's giving his wealth away as he ages and has been for a long time. It's the right thing to do to help the world, and after all, you can' t take it with you! So, once again, watch the 3-part Netflix documentary about Bill Gates called Inside Bill's Brain: Decoding Bill Gates and see Warren Buffett's part in it when he talks with Bill at a favorite diner of Buffett's, while Buffett eats a hamburger and puts extra salt on it. Gates loves hamburgers too, his favorite place to eat was Dick's Drive-In back in the day, a very popular Seattle-area fast food chain. One location was just down the hill from Microsoft's old corporate HQ in Bellevue, WA, next to I-405. Gates' receptionist reportedly had the phone number on speed-dial because he liked to have lunch from there so often.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read

From: OldAIMGuy	12/27/2022 8:36:11 AM
	1 Recommendation of 18917

The Year ends with the v-Wave falling in risk profile a bit. Both the 18 Month and 3-5 Year risk levels are back just below median values again. Week of December 30th _________________________ Short Term (18 Months) Individual Stocks: 35% (Down 12 from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 23% (Down 9 from previous week) __________________________ Long Term (3-5 Years) Individual Stocks: 42% (Down 3 from previous week) Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 28% (Down 2 from previous week) Oscillator: -.88 (Down 2.73 from previous week) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions Individual Stocks High Risk: At or above 51% Neutral: Between 37 and 50% Low Risk: At or below 36% Diversified Funds High Risk: At or above 34% Neutral: Between 25 and 33% Low Risk: At or below 24% Best wishes and Happy New Year, OAG Tom

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (18809)	12/30/2022 11:43:12 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	1 Recommendation of 18917

Get back to Basics Invest smarter than you look We've survived worse times I'm letting my inner Neanderthal shine through in 2023............. OAG Tom

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read

From: OldAIMGuy	1/2/2023 1:58:16 PM
	1 Recommendation of 18917

It's good to be reminded once in a while why it is we need a systematic investment management model for guidance. 2022 proved to be one of those years. Even 2021 was, but for different reasons. 2021 proved AIM was wise in controlling risk buildup as markets were going upward. 2022 proved AIM was on the job to shift Cash Reserve back toward equities as markets sagged. Here's how it looks over time in several different of my strategies: U.S Sector ETF Summary: (compared to S&P500 Total Return Index = -18.11%) International Style ETF Summary: (Compared to MSCI World Index = -18.14% 10 Stock "Sandbox" Portfolio Summary: Modified Twinvest Simple Contributory IRA: All in all I'm pleased with inventory control and cash management through a tough couple of years. Happy New Year, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read

From: OldAIMGuy	1/9/2023 10:50:41 AM
	of 18917

I had the luck to see this image posted on LinkedIn this AM and found the image most instructive for those of us who use Business Sector ETFs. Of interest in looking back at 2022 is how much variance there was from one business sector to another (+65% to -39%). This graphic shows several things: 1) room for reversion to Mean, 2) impact of weights per sector in the S&P 500 and 3) why using AIM to manage the S&P500’s Sectors can potentially be more profitable than just owning the SP500 Index fund. If we'd attempted to out-guess the sector performance based upon history we could have done very well or very poorly with such dispersion! Certainly ignoring the Energy sector would have hurt. And, concentrating on the Info Tech sector could have also hurt. In general, for me, AIMing each of the sectors in a single strategy did well for me. I was still 'down' for 2022 but quite a bit less than the S&P500 itself. ETFs have made sector AIMing easy and profitable for me. Best wishes, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read

From: OldAIMGuy	1/22/2023 8:46:12 AM
	of 18917

Re: v-Wave motions..................... The short term bullishness has all been used up and we're back near the Median value. The longer range forecast has been slowly rising in risk posture for a while and is also right around the Median value. Indexes are flattish to slightly up for the YTD but nicely up from their lows posted in the last Quarter of 2022. It appears the v-Wave continues to give good counsel. Upside potential and Downside risk are in balance at this point. Best wishes, OAG Tom

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read

From: OldAIMGuy	1/27/2023 10:23:33 AM
	of 18917

P.D.Q. - Pretty Darned Quiet!!! This seems to happen any time the markets get funky. The i-Hub Boards hardly get any posts. In the mean time: - US Sector ETF Portfolio - 9 of the 12 holdings are now back within 10% of their "Next Sell" AIM targets. - International Style ETF Portfolio - 6 of 9 holdings are now back within 10% of their "Next Sell" AIM targets. - Sandbox 10 Stock Portfolio - 4 of 10 positions are back to within 10% of Sell targets. - UBA Universal ETF Portfolio - 5 of 16 positions are within 10% of their Next Sell AIM targets. There has been nice improvement in these stances since the start of the New Year. I've had a few AIM sales so far but also a few 'vealies' since some sleeves never used much of their cash. Best wishes, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read