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   Strategies & Market TrendsWaiting for the big Kahuna


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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (94592)6/29/2017 9:13:23 AM
From: freelyhovering
   of 94614
 
Is the crash still intact?

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To: freelyhovering who wrote (94593)6/29/2017 12:49:36 PM
From: Bull RidaH
   of 94614
 
Aye matie!! The whale, she give us a mighty flick of the tail when ye harpoons
penetrated her, liked ta capsized me ship!! :)

The slide from Monday's high til Tuesdays closing low completed wave 1 of 1 of A
down, and we had a nearly 100% wave 2 of 1 of A retrace. The retrace was
greater than normal due to the help from the whale's best friend, that entity we all
know and love... Our good friends at Goldman. I guess they yearned for one last
chance to distribute at top tick.... Can't blame them.

But we, the mighty sailors of the Andrea Gail, must be committed, in the face of
their "perfect storm", legions of great white sharks, sting rays, sea snakes, killer
whales and every single thing else they can heap upon us, to endure and fight the
good fight and bring our catch home.

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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (94594)6/29/2017 2:17:23 PM
From: freelyhovering
   of 94614
 
Wonderful, literary summary. I've done well this a.m. and will watch the whale fight. Captain Ahab will win.

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To: freelyhovering who wrote (94595)7/6/2017 4:47:53 PM
From: Bull RidaH
   of 94614
 
Here are excerpts from a private message I shared with a comrade on 7/3 with regards to how this crash/correction proceeds from here in light of the 39 day crash of '87. This scenario suggests a much more dangerous wave count allowing a much deeper decline is operative than what I originally suggested, as recently summarized on Zmans forum...

"In comparing the 2 charts, it's obvious the current chart is proceeding at between 1/5th to 1/6th the speed. Thus, with this past week being the 2nd full week since the top, it should be and indeed is comparable in price action with the 2nd day after the final '87 top.

Looks like the first 5 weeks of this correction will proceed very slowly, only progressing down about 1% further each week. Then a strong rally proceeds that takes the market back near 2400 spx, or only 2% from the all-time high, before a sharper slide begins that over the following 4 weeks takes it down to 2200 spx. This decline should be followed by a 50% retrace of the entire move lower that takes it back to 2325 spx. These preliminary sell-offs and rallies may not be the kind of moves we can make a fortune on, but could help accumulate more capital to deploy at the opportune moment when all hell breaks loose much later on.

The total corrective move from the 2746.7 high to the 1616.2 low in '87 was 41.15%. As I indicated on Zman's thread (with an assist from him), based on the size of corrective activity off the Spring of 2015 highs, this correction could see a move from the 2453.82 high to absolutely no lower than 1480 SPX, or 39.69%. I do believe the full correction to near 1480 SPX will happen, and in a manner that rhymes with '87, but at the slower pace mentioned above. The '87 correction took 39 trading days after the topping day to the final low. With last week being week 1, this decline will probably take roughly 38 more weeks, with the last several weeks of it (March 5-23rd, 2018), like the last several days in '87, seeing the precipitous portion of the drop and more than 65% of the total decline."

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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (94596)7/17/2017 8:54:28 AM
From: freelyhovering
   of 94614
 
When do we drop? Looks like rally to new high happened Friday.

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From: blitzfund8/20/2017 10:40:46 AM
   of 94614
 
Geez, we didn't close on the low last TGIF but close enough.

Surf be breaking on Monday.........................................



Blitz

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From: blitzfund9/25/2017 9:43:04 PM
   of 94614
 
Three Peaks and Doooooooomed House, just maybe...................................

thepatternsite.com

bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Just maybe if $TRAN stays below 9763.66, we are at point 25 IMHO...........................

Surfs up
Blitz

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From: blitzfund10/15/2017 12:16:33 AM
   of 94614
 
Another 50 cents and what 4% could do............

ruffer.co.uk

file:///C:/Users/athroughz/Desktop/hedge%20fund/Convexity_Maven_-_Rambling_near_the_Edge.pdf

Surfs up,
Blitz

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To: freelyhovering who wrote (94597)10/16/2017 3:54:10 PM
From: Bull RidaH
   of 94614
 
10 week symmetrical triangle in S&P Futures broke out higher September 7th at 2475 and targets 2559.50 for neck-snapping reversal lower. All upward action since Sep 7 has been a classic "bull-trap", and we should see a correction begin from here and take the S&P to 2200 minimum / 2050 maximum before year-end. Duh Chef is about to have his kitchen re-arranged!! :)


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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (94601)10/16/2017 4:21:31 PM
From: Fintas
   of 94614
 
Heck that downside would just be the move towards the election eve results.

Then it will get interesting to watch how the cookie crumbles.

However I must note that there are many suggesting 2700/3000 without any retrace. UP UP and away.

I disagree and nice to see you put up an objective post. Thanks.

Fintas

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