|Here are excerpts from a private message I shared with a comrade on 7/3 with regards to how this crash/correction proceeds from here in light of the 39 day crash of '87. This scenario suggests a much more dangerous wave count allowing a much deeper decline is operative than what I originally suggested, as recently summarized on Zmans forum...|
"In comparing the 2 charts, it's obvious the current chart is proceeding at between 1/5th to 1/6th the speed. Thus, with this past week being the 2nd full week since the top, it should be and indeed is comparable in price action with the 2nd day after the final '87 top.
Looks like the first 5 weeks of this correction will proceed very slowly, only progressing down about 1% further each week. Then a strong rally proceeds that takes the market back near 2400 spx, or only 2% from the all-time high, before a sharper slide begins that over the following 4 weeks takes it down to 2200 spx. This decline should be followed by a 50% retrace of the entire move lower that takes it back to 2325 spx. These preliminary sell-offs and rallies may not be the kind of moves we can make a fortune on, but could help accumulate more capital to deploy at the opportune moment when all hell breaks loose much later on.
The total corrective move from the 2746.7 high to the 1616.2 low in '87 was 41.15%. As I indicated on Zman's thread (with an assist from him), based on the size of corrective activity off the Spring of 2015 highs, this correction could see a move from the 2453.82 high to absolutely no lower than 1480 SPX, or 39.69%. I do believe the full correction to near 1480 SPX will happen, and in a manner that rhymes with '87, but at the slower pace mentioned above. The '87 correction took 39 trading days after the topping day to the final low. With last week being week 1, this decline will probably take roughly 38 more weeks, with the last several weeks of it (March 5-23rd, 2018), like the last several days in '87, seeing the precipitous portion of the drop and more than 65% of the total decline."