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   Non-TechHome Depot (HD)


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To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (1131)1/3/2003 12:22:57 AM
From: Bald Eagle
   of 1170
 
I guess I could look at it as an opportunity to average down, but do I want to?

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To: Bald Eagle who wrote (1135)1/3/2003 12:59:59 AM
From: Mark Marcellus
   of 1170
 
Depends on your level of confidence, and shouldn't be done without a long hard look at the numbers. There's no question that the business model is changing and the days of strong growth are gone forever. But we're getting to a price where the question to ask is "are they mortally wounded?" If not, you're looking at a solid company with a P/S under one, little debt (although more than is immediately apparent, thanks to the operating leases), and what appear to be decent margins and good cash flow.

FWIW, I bought some in the high 20's, looking to add a bunch more when and if we get to the low 20's. Looks like I'll get my chance, for better or worse.

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To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (1136)1/3/2003 8:39:30 AM
From: sandintoes
   of 1170
 
This is what I've been saying all along, I much prefer Lowes to HD, even though HD is closer.

Home Depot Slows; Lowe's Grows

Forbes.com staff, 01.03.03, 7:32 AM ET
NEW YORK - America's home improvement sector is doing its own version of paint by numbers.

After the closing bell in the U.S. last night, giant retailer Home Depot (nyse: HD - news - people ) cut its earnings outlook for fiscal 2002. Its shares fell almost 8% in after-hours trade and are poised to head lower today.

Lowe's (nyse: LOW - news - people ) took advantage of its competitor's disclosure to hammer home a point about its own future, saying it expects earnings and sales for both the fourth quarter and full year to meet previous forecasts.

What gives? Home Depot, which had been pushing hardware as the perfect stocking stuffer, seems to have been nailed by the very weak holiday shopping season. Lowe's, meanwhile, is tinkering with its stores to make them appeal to women year-round. As we note in the cover story of our Jan. 20 issue, Lowe's has decided that, while men wear the tool belt, women are the real power behind the home improvement throne.

forbes.com

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To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (1136)1/3/2003 10:18:49 AM
From: Bald Eagle
   of 1170
 
Maybe I should buy some Lowe's to hedge my bet.

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To: sandintoes who wrote (1137)1/3/2003 10:35:28 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III
   of 1170
 
>>This is what I've been saying all along, I much prefer Lowes to HD<<

Yep, and after the way HD screwed me, I make it a point to tell everyone I meet about it and steer them clear of HD.

I am even taking out ads in various city papers now telling people that HD doesn't live up to their promises and will avoid living up to promises. I couldn't afford a NY Times or Washington post ad like I hoped but doing this in smaller town papers is pretty cheap. I may cover the whole US by the time I am done. I hope the $1000 HD pooched me out of is worth the millions in lost revenue if just 10 people listen in each town I do. I get mad but then I get even. -g-

I got stuck in a meeting and missed the CC Call in November but still hope to try for the next one. I was at war with S for a year and now HD is this year's target.

Good Luck,

Lee

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (1139)1/3/2003 12:28:40 PM
From: sandintoes
   of 1170
 
Sorry you had such a problem with HD. That isn't my complaint. My complaint is I can't find anyone to answer my questions, or take the time to explain what I want to know.

Lowes is another story. The employees at Lowes will take the time to get into Faux painting techniques, and recommend crown molding methods. They showed me how to order new kitchen cabinet doors with glass fronts. They even told me how to remove the "Apartment style" sliding glass doors in the bathroom showers.

In short, they have trained employees for their particular fields.

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To: sandintoes who wrote (1140)1/3/2003 12:37:35 PM
From: BWAC
   of 1170
 
<In short, they have trained employees for their particular fields>

Is your particular store new?

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (1139)1/3/2003 12:42:33 PM
From: 10K a day
   of 1170
 
hey lee. maybe i introduce you to my X wife.

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To: BWAC who wrote (1141)1/3/2003 12:47:20 PM
From: sandintoes
   of 1170
 
No, I go to them all over the country....where we use to live, where we live now, and where we own a condo..same great service, and always clean.

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To: Bald Eagle who wrote (1138)1/3/2003 1:27:58 PM
From: Mark Marcellus
   of 1170
 
I certainly wouldn't buy Lowe's as an HD hedge. In many scenarios where HD does poorly, Lowe's does poorly as well. After all, they're in the same sector. There's plenty of room in this sector for both to do well. If either of them doesn't, the reasons will be either company specific, or sector specific. Either way, it's probably not a good idea to count on there being a strong negative correlation between the two.

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