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   Technology StocksMicrosoft: Windows 97

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (27)1/18/1997 7:14:00 PM
From: Chris Abellera
   of 74
I think that Microsoft casts a VERY gloomy picture on their future

If the stock opens up a fraction or is down 1 at the open,
then prepare for a natural correction back to its 50-day average,
which is currently at $80, before it finally settles out.

Based on that earnings report, there is no way that I'd be dumb
to buy the stock if it opens at $85-87 on Monday, with so many
millions of shares that are "dying" to get out of this one.

There's just TOO MUCH downside risk, especially with the earnings out.

But honestly, I'd step in and buy it if it falls to near $80-81


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To: Chris Abellera who wrote (28)1/19/1997 1:05:00 PM
From: Alec Epting
   of 74
I agree. MSFT has a trailing P/E of nearly 50 and a growth rate of 27%. There's something to be said for earnings predictability but this ridiculous! The stock appears to have support at 80.

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To: Chris Abellera who wrote (28)1/19/1997 2:00:00 PM
From: Kirce Stojanovski
   of 74
Chris I disagree with you on that one. Microsoft always has good products. And with more and more powerusers out there there will be a need for their products. Before when Microsoft introduced Windows for Workgroups 3.11, how many upgraded from 3.1. Not many. Then they introduced 95. And everybody upgraded.

Their NT 3.0 platform wasn't a big seller. Now look at it, it is the next big operating system. They went from the big seller of 3.5 to 4.0. Atleast where I work we got to have 4.0 or your out of the game.

They are taking a lot of money and putting into R&D. Why is that so bad. Bill Gates is a smart man. If the stock falls big he losses Millions of dollars. He won't let that happen. I will buy if Microsoft falls to $80 as well.

With the kind of market we have, it might. But I don't think so.

Would you of rather had Microsoft say, "Hey we are going great, our next few quarters are going to be a killer?" I'm sure thats what everyone wants. But then if they don't do that they are going to get crushed.

Atleast they told everyone where their money is going (R&D).

Microsoft will open lower tomorrow. But by end of Feb should be at $90. And I believe that is modest.

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To: Chris Abellera who wrote (28)1/19/1997 3:23:00 PM
From: cheong ming kwok
   of 74
Just remember one thing: Microsoft is doing this to lessen all the

speculation. They're future is great if your time frame for the upside

is more than one day. I don't think you'd see Bill Gates selling his

100 million shares any time soon, especially when both Office 97,

Windows 97, and Visual Basic products are just coming out or will be

coming out this year. Don't play with the minds of long-term investors.

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To: Mark Finger who wrote (22)1/19/1997 4:21:00 PM
From: Brian Malloy
   of 74
Mark, I'm a long term holder of MSFT, since 1991.
Daily, weekly, quarterly moves don't mean much to me. In the long run, regardless of how high the PE ratio is now, I know that MSFT will continue to be a growth company for the forseable future.

In the past when MSFT gets in the position that it is currently, when investor demand drives the price up too high, the stock tends to correct 15% or so. It then stays in a trading range from -15% below to about +5% above the old high for something like 8 to 12 months before resuming its rise. I believe that we are about to enter one of these churning type periods.

Since I cannot predict when the stock will go up or down - but do believe in the longterm growth and earnings potential of MSFT I just hold it. The returns over the past six years have been well beyond my expections when I first purchased it.

Brian Malloy

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To: Chris Abellera who wrote (28)1/20/1997 7:58:00 PM
From: Shea Jones
   of 74
Yeah, Chris, I disagree. I think you're waaayyy off base. How long have you been following MSFT? Their comments on future earnings are nearly word for word what they said last year, and two years ago. It's practically a tradition.

'Dumb' buying the stock at 85? A year from now, when you would have made big bucks, I'll refrain from gloating.

Someone says nearly the same thing that you have about MSFT every once in a while. And all of them would have been rich had they just shut up and bought the stock. There's no reason to believe that MSFT will reverse it's 10 year trend of explosive growth. The company continues to pump out products that sell, the industry is still in its infancy in terms of potential. There's just no argument to base your gloom and doom prediction on.

Oh, and as far as 'dying' to get out? ROFL! Did you *see* the stock price today, Chris? Bet you wish you would have gotten in two years ago, like I did.



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To: Chris Abellera who wrote (28)1/20/1997 8:40:00 PM
From: Mike Magarahan
   of 74
Chris, the only thing that can stop Microsoft is the Gov't. If you want to watch for something, watch for that.

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To: Mark Finger who wrote (21)1/20/1997 9:38:00 PM
From: damniseedemons
   of 74
>In July, 1995, MS had several closes over 100, and was as high as 107 or 109 momentarily. 3-4 months later they closed below 80, and spent significant time in the low 80's. Further, they were in the low 80's as late as Jan, 1996. If you look back at my post, I am predicting a similar scenario now, with a drop to the low 60's by summer.>

Mark, things were so much different back then. For one, we saw a cyclical peak in technology stock in general--and a cyclical bear market in semiconductor stocks. Also, a major drag on MSFT were the fears that Microsoft had missed the paradigm shift to the internetworked computing world. Remember how even Goldman Sach's Rick Sherlund (Goldman is MSFT's investment bank, and Sherlund is a close friend of Bill Gates as well as MSFT's "guru" analyst) downgraded MSFT for that reason? Meanwhile, the internet stocks were running like mad! Windows 95 was over, and there was basically nothing to look forward too....

Anyway, this time, MSFT is unquestionably an internet force. Better still, they have many key products spread through the pipeline. For the next several years (at least) Windows NT will be a huge growth engine for MSFT. For now, it's NT4. In about 6-9 months, NT5. And in mid-late 1998, 64-bit NT (with Intel's Merced processor). Office 97 was just released. Windows 97 coming in mid-1997. BackOffice is showing tremendous growth....

And the above is only a small sampling of their pipeline. Lest we not forget their content initiatives, development tools, games, Windows CE, etc. In short, MSFT is more powerful than ever. For any long term investor, this stock should be a core holding....

Sal Habash

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To: damniseedemons who wrote (35)1/21/1997 8:39:00 PM
From: Kory B.
   of 74
Sal, I couldn't agree more. I own several computer companies and the web microsoft has woven is much more intricut then most people realize. It goes beyond just having the public (end-user) buy their software. The vendor support is unlike anything I have ever seen before, in any business, industry or product.. So much in fact it is a little scary - don't get me wrong I own tons of MSFT, and I am accumulating as many shares as I can. They are not the best but they are the only game in town.



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To: Kory B. who wrote (36)1/22/1997 7:29:00 AM
From: Robert Scott
   of 74

Don't you think MFST is a little ahead of itself?? At over 40X trailing earnings and with growth to slow down to low 20's it seems overvalued to me. It should carry a slight premium to its growth rate due to its position, but 2X - seems 2 much.

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