| To: Don Green who wrote (64831) | 4/21/2009 8:04:55 PM | | From: Sr K | | | | | It looks likes 10x annual royalties on IP ($600m), so all Ellison has to do is cut losses or jettison anything that's too unlikely to fit, or find real synergy. That's why ORCL has bounced strong. That's why any change-of-control costs are easily handled. |
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| From: Don Green | 4/22/2009 9:04:20 AM | | | | | | April 21, 2009 10:31 AM
Ex Microsoft strategist dissects Oracle-Sun deal: "Soracle"
Posted by Brier Dudley
Great analysis of Oracle+Sun by Charles Fitzgerald, who has a particularly good radar on this topic.
Until early 2008 he was Microsoft's former general manager of platform strategy -- playing industrial chess with Sun, Oracle and IBM.
Fitzgerald predicts Oracle will fob Sun's hardware business off to a company like Hewlett-Packard or Fujitsu.
His take on IBM:
"They got a good look at Sun, but in the end I suspect they're going to regret not doing this deal. They regretted giving Microsoft control of the software crown jewels for the PC; they may face similar situation now on the server. Oracle can have a lot of fun making IBM choose between open systems sanctimony and controlling their own destiny." |
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| To: Don Green who wrote (64838) | 4/22/2009 2:13:39 PM | | From: Mark O. Halverson | | | | First, I think Sun is a good fit for Oracle, and Oracle can profit nicely. But is it a done deal?
In my view, IBM may be ruing its failure to acquire Sun. Perhaps not so much for what Sun could do for IBM, but for what NOT acquiring Sun might do to damage IBM. Imaging Sun's server line ultimately going to HP. Imagine Java, MySQL with Oracle who will know better than Sun what to do with them. And imagine Sun's storage line ending up with, well ... whatever IBM competitor. Can IBM really be happy about all this? It might be a bitter pill for IBM to admit it has erred in its penny pinching dealings and rejection of Sun, but I would not totally rule out IBM jumping back into the bidding. Keep in mind, the acquisition isn't a done deal until Sun shareholders approve the deal.
If IBM were to re-enter the bidding (or HP or whoever)I think that Oracle would respond. The Sun acquisition, being immediately accretive to Oracle with very nice long term possibilities, is a very sweet deal. In view of the above rationale, I am keeping some of my Sun shares for a while.
Best Mark |
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