| From: tktrimbath | 6/30/2023 7:25:24 PM | | | | | | INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap is $1.63B was $0.922B)
Geron is a leading-edge (some say bleeding-edge, but that sounds too graphic) biotech firm that is applying their knowledge of telomere management for treatments like hematological disorders. My understanding is that they plan to apply (or did they already?) for FDA approval within the next 6-9 months, with commercialization happening shortly after that.
Geron started decades ago with much broader, yet even more ambitious goals. Geron takes its name from gerontology, a field that the company saw as a large unmet need, as in, everyone who wants to live a longer life. They were developing technologies that are attractive to the immortality set. Now, their scope and depth are smaller. They've sold off most of their intellectual property to remain in business (disclosure: I also hold stock in Lineage Cell Therapeutics - LCTX, to invest in one of those technologies), which has also resulted in significant stock dilution.
I believe many have been ignoring GERN because it involves learning about telomeres (something manages cell death or cell life) and terms like hematological (blood-related). The company has not delivered the product despite decades of work, and there's that significant dilution.
If Geron receives FDA approval, they should get a lot of attention in the medical community, among patients, and GERN should get more positive interest from the investment community.
If, may, probably are the kinds of terms that have always been more speculative in Geron's work, but they may be on the cusp of less speculation and more real application.
IF Geron succeeds with this treatment, and IF the treatment can be extended to other ailments, then Geron, the patients, GERN, and the stockholders may benefit.
(Mostly a copy&paste for my biotech investments with the names changed)
One hurdle with biotechs is making sure the treatment is reliable, effective, safe, and commercially viable. Another hurdle with innovative treatments is gaining FDA approval is a reasonable time. Treatments for unmet needs have pressure for early approval. Innovative treatments have pressures encouraging the FDA to be cautious. We may soon see how the technical, political, medical, and societal pressures affect Geron's treatment and Geron's viability and GERN's performance.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold. I bought more when they mentioned specific years for clinical trials and approval goals.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. trimbathcreative.net
& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube
youtu.be ) |
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| From: tktrimbath | 12/29/2023 5:00:26 PM | | | | | | my semi-annual exercise of GERN
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap is $1.15B was $1.63B)
For decades I've been able to simply describe Geron because so little changed. Now, they've finally announced news "Geron announces FDA acceptance of New Drug Application for imetelstat for the treatment of transfusion-dependent anemia in patients with lower risk." Simple descriptions run into detailed progress reports that sound encouraging while also being hard to understand. Their web site says it better. "Our ambition is to change lives by changing the course of blood cancer." And, "We’re committed to bringing the potential power of telomerase inhibition to patients with imetelstat." That's clearer. Let's see if my amateur understanding suffices to describe the situation.
Years, decades ago, Geron had a diversified portfolio of innovative and somewhat controversial treatments that could fight cancer by convincing certain cells to die, and fighting auto-immune disorders to allow certain cells to live. From that broad range of possibilities they've narrowed down to blood cancer.
The good news is in that first paragraph, "Geron announces FDA acceptance of New Drug Application..." That sort of news could apply a premium to a stock price. I looked forward to it. It hasn't happened. There are several possibilities for why it didn't.
- The premium is already included.
- No one knows, or no longer cares about news from Geron. I've held the stock for over two decades. Few folks have that patience.
- News in the industry may lower confidence.
- Dilution has so reduced the value of the shares that the premuim is built in, but share price doesn't show it because there are so many shares in the market.
- People want more proof of the technology, or the market.
- The product may be considered too expensive (ala DNDN from ten years ago.)
- Competition may have caught up to them.
I don't know. My style of investing involves some research, but nothing detailed until it matters. As I am a LTBH shareholder, I do not plan to trade the stock; so, there's less urgency for me to track the details. My curiosity may inspire to bring my understanding up to date.
New medical treatments have the potential to be used for more than one ailment. Geron's trails are targeted at blood cancer, but if it proves successful the company can expand and the stock price can reflect the multiplier effect.
Speculation is easy, but also moot. The FDA is the power, and they've accepted the New Drug Application. It is possible that a long wait may be over.
And...
(Mostly a copy&paste for my biotech investments with the names changed)
One hurdle with biotechs is making sure the treatment is reliable, effective, safe, and commercially viable. Another hurdle with innovative treatments is gaining FDA approval is a reasonable time. Treatments for unmet needs have pressure for early approval. Innovative treatments have pressures encouraging the FDA to be cautious. We may soon see how the technical, political, medical, and societal pressures affect Geron's treatment and Geron's viability and GERN's performance.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold. I bought more when they mentioned specific years for clinical trials and approval goals.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. trimbathcreative.net
& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube
youtu.be )
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| To: tktrimbath who wrote (3556) | 3/15/2024 5:33:50 PM | | From: Savant | | | | wonder why 2 of the panelists voted against....conflict of interest??
PS...how interesting that the pps took a plunge coupla days ahead of the vote....have seen that before of other cos...
PPS...not a done deal yet, though could go well |
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