| To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (56735) | 1/24/2016 12:13:46 PM | | From: Spekulatius | | | | Re Costco, VISA - the affiliate business was part of their model to increase the reach of the Amex card. This business does not seem to be competitive any more, so this is definitely a big negative for Amex . This loss may be priced in the stock already.
The problem may go further though, as it indicates lack of brand cache and competitiveness. Amex could charge higher prices for their services than Visa and MC and it appears to me that there is pushback from the marketplace, which will force Amex to reset their pricing and that can't be good for Amex margins and stock price. |
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| To: bruwin who wrote (56701) | 1/24/2016 2:24:15 PM | | From: Graham Osborn | | | | | Well let's not forget that Graham was one of the great macro investors. That's why he spent so much time on the theory of market levels and equity/ bond allocation etc. Every account I've read of Graham implies he would have been out of the market at these levels. That's very different from Buffett's "hold forever" mentality which basically says he doesn't care about the market or Berkshire's valuation over the short/ intermediate term. Buffett was a long term holder whereas Graham believed in relatively short holding periods of 2-5 years. After considering Buffett's comment "I could do 50% a year in stocks easy" from many angles, I've concluded its baloney - maybe you could do that in microcaps in the 50s-60s when he got started, but we are in a very different macro environment currently. Not saying such returns are impossible, but the mechanism to achieve them will be very different right now. |
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| To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56745) | 1/24/2016 3:49:15 PM | | From: bruwin | | | | Apart from the accounts you've read of Graham, have you perhaps also read the following regarding Buffett, both written by Mary Buffett and David Clark ...
1) The Buffettology Workbook
2) Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements |
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| To: staring who wrote (56742) | 1/24/2016 5:51:32 PM | | From: Paul Senior | | | | UNFI. I'll put it on my watch list. Has had a good history of revenue increases and bottom-line results. Negatives for the company stock are described here:
finance.yahoo.com
Is "BOSS", Hugo Boss AG (BOSS.de)? This fashion retailer doesn't appeal to me at current price.
Just my opinion, and I've been wrong many, many times. |
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| To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56747) | 1/24/2016 5:53:55 PM | | From: Graham Osborn | | | | | Fun fact: on EV/ Rev basis (better comp than price), AXP is cheaper than it was at the 09 low - cheaper in fact than any time since 1995. Of course, that figure should be adjusted for anticipated revenue losses. |
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| To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56745) | 1/24/2016 6:15:41 PM | | From: Paul Senior | | | | Every account I've read of Graham implies he would have been out of the market at these levels. Really?
I can't recall reading that he would ever advise "Intelligent Investors" to be out of the market totally. Afaik, he counseled shifting between 75% stocks/25% bonds when market was cheap to 75%bonds/25% stocks when market was expensive. |
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| To: Paul Senior who wrote (56748) | 1/24/2016 9:33:43 PM | | From: E_K_S | | | | Re: UNFI - It's fairly valued according to the GN valuation model. I do like their low debt but operating margins are low typical of food stores.
I could not find BOSS only the German apparel company. That one is not a a sector I would buy now.
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FWIW, added to my TAL shares at $9.23/share, started a new ABBV position again, closed out ABT and peeled off 30% of my XOM @ $75.00/share shares that I bought August last year at $68.00/share. I hate to see profitable Buys (even at very good Buy points) go into the negative.
Still selectively making Buys where my first test is that the company must sell at a discount to it's GN value. Over the last five years, that screen has made me the most money and few if any of those buys blew up. An undervalued GN Buy can lead to a 'value trap' at times so buyer beware.
AP is one that may be the later case but I continue to add as BV increases. Also, SNFCA is selling below it's BV but seeing very few Buyers perhaps because it is a very small cap. Same w/ STRL even after announcing three new contracts worth over $125 mln in 2016 as management promised.
Good investing
EKS |
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