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From: LTBH1/22/2016 5:24:48 PM
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RE Amex

This excerpt, from the Plumbers and Steamfitters Local 137 Pension Fund lawsuit against Amex, gives an estimate of Costco loss:

"The investors contend that the U.S. Costco co-branding contract was “highly material to AmEx’s business,” representing 8% of the company’s revenues in 2014; 20% of its outstanding loans and 10% of its cards issued worldwide."

consumerist.com

Luck
LTBH

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56709)1/22/2016 6:07:25 PM
From: Graham Osborn
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I actually did too yesterday, just b/c Brent spiked and some of the microcap oils didn't budge. Sold on the spike this AM.. I try not to do that sort of thing but in this case just couldn't resist :)

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From: staring1/23/2016 10:33:21 AM
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Why These Stocks are so Cheap?

UNFI BOSS appear to me really cheap with great upside. To me they appear to have very low multiples and good growth prospects. Why no one is paying attention? Am I missing something?

Disclosure: I am long in both

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From: Elroy1/23/2016 9:22:56 PM
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Here's a high tech "value" stock that might be worth a look.

OIIM - O2 Micro

They are a fabless semiconductor maker, about $50-$60 million per year in sales, gross margins around 50%.

They are big in semiconductors that go into hardware like saws, tools, etc. Their sales have been struggling for the past few years. They are trying to get into backlighting for cell phones, perhaps, we'll see.

The main reason it is a "value" stock is they have $55 million cash (last quarter, probably down a bit in Q4 2015), no debt, and the market cap is about $32 million.

If business stabilizes or turns around, the stock could do well. If not, you can hope that management will wise up and sell the company at some point, they should be worth at least $55 million to a larger semiconductor company that can rationalize the business and keep the cash.

They buy back a bit of their own stock each quarter.

No idea whether sales will turn around, but it's a good one to watch, if this kind of thing turns around it's easier to get a 2x-4x bagger out of it. And if not, the cash provides some downside cushion.

==

Founded in April 1995, O2Micro develops and markets innovative power management components for the Computer, Consumer, Industrial, Automotive and Communications markets. Products include LED General Lighting, Backlighting, Battery Management and Power Management.

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To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (56735)1/24/2016 12:13:46 PM
From: Spekulatius
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Re Costco, VISA - the affiliate business was part of their model to increase the reach of the Amex card. This business does not seem to be competitive any more, so this is definitely a big negative for Amex . This loss may be priced in the stock already.

The problem may go further though, as it indicates lack of brand cache and competitiveness. Amex could charge higher prices for their services than Visa and MC and it appears to me that there is pushback from the marketplace, which will force Amex to reset their pricing and that can't be good for Amex margins and stock price.

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To: bruwin who wrote (56701)1/24/2016 2:24:15 PM
From: Graham Osborn
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Well let's not forget that Graham was one of the great macro investors. That's why he spent so much time on the theory of market levels and equity/ bond allocation etc. Every account I've read of Graham implies he would have been out of the market at these levels. That's very different from Buffett's "hold forever" mentality which basically says he doesn't care about the market or Berkshire's valuation over the short/ intermediate term. Buffett was a long term holder whereas Graham believed in relatively short holding periods of 2-5 years. After considering Buffett's comment "I could do 50% a year in stocks easy" from many angles, I've concluded its baloney - maybe you could do that in microcaps in the 50s-60s when he got started, but we are in a very different macro environment currently. Not saying such returns are impossible, but the mechanism to achieve them will be very different right now.

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To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56745)1/24/2016 3:49:15 PM
From: bruwin
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Apart from the accounts you've read of Graham, have you perhaps also read the following regarding Buffett, both written by Mary Buffett and David Clark ...

1) The Buffettology Workbook

2) Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (56744)1/24/2016 4:39:37 PM
From: Graham Osborn
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One other consideration is ValueAct's sales have been very timely of late. They exited Valeant within 6 months of the big drop I believe. I'm starting to take their moves seriously.

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To: staring who wrote (56742)1/24/2016 5:51:32 PM
From: Paul Senior
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UNFI. I'll put it on my watch list. Has had a good history of revenue increases and bottom-line results. Negatives for the company stock are described here:

finance.yahoo.com

Is "BOSS", Hugo Boss AG (BOSS.de)? This fashion retailer doesn't appeal to me at current price.

Just my opinion, and I've been wrong many, many times.

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To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56747)1/24/2016 5:53:55 PM
From: Graham Osborn
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Fun fact: on EV/ Rev basis (better comp than price), AXP is cheaper than it was at the 09 low - cheaper in fact than any time since 1995. Of course, that figure should be adjusted for anticipated revenue losses.

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