Value Investing | Stock Discussion Forums

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends Value Investing

Previous 10 Next 10

To: Paul Senior who wrote (56728)	1/22/2016 3:35:10 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	of 77443

I have two AMEX cards in my sleeve, Costco (which will cease to exist in April) and Fidelity AMEX (which has no annual fee, and pays me 2% cash back on all purchases). I have racked up zero interest charges (pay all my bills in a timely manner), they don't charge me an annual fee, and I get cash back. I'm guessing I'm the type of consumer AXP (or V or MA) doesn't really like.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (2)

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (56730)	1/22/2016 3:55:14 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	of 77443

I have two AMEX cards in my sleeve, Costco (which will cease to exist in April) and Fidelity AMEX (which has no annual fee, and pays me 2% cash back on all purchases). Fido Amex will also cease to exist this year. The affiliation was sold to US Bank Visa: thetruthaboutcreditcards.com And that's the problem with Amex - they are losing affiliations, their fees for merchants are high, and I am not so sure it's a "premium" brand anymore. Though on CoBF some people still think it's premium. And people still like its extended warranty + money back guarantees. These are applicable to straight Amex cards though, not necessarily to affiliate cards. I don't have AXP position anymore except through BRK. I won't buy unless it hits $40's I think.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (56730)	1/22/2016 3:59:30 PM
From: upanddown	1 Recommendation of 77443

I have two AMEX cards in my sleeve, Costco (which will cease to exist in April) and Fidelity AMEX (which has no annual fee, and pays me 2% cash back on all purchases). I also have the same two. AXP is also going to take a hit when Fidelity switches to VISA, I believe around mid-year. I'm glad to see Fido switch to VISA since they are also dumping BOA. You can't currently set up Auto Pay on due date now unless you have a BOA account.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (2)

To: upanddown who wrote (56732)	1/22/2016 4:28:51 PM
From: Paul Senior	of 77443

AXP. Okay, you guys have the cards; you don't give me any confidence that the merchants you are dealing with see the advantage of AmEx though. (Costco/Fidelity giving up on them) I suspect AXP stock will recover. Right now it's just likely to be one of those stocks that just goes up without me.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

To: upanddown who wrote (56732)	1/22/2016 4:37:39 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	of 77443

Wow, hadn't heard about Fido ceasing the AMEX affinity card. That's not good either. I know how much I spend, in this cash less society, I'm guessing 85% of all expenditures, cash or charge. And, the Fidelity market (and, to a much lesser degree Costco) brings in a bunch of high net worth households.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56731)	1/22/2016 4:57:45 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	of 77443

The Fido loss is not as big as the Costco loss, but you can't sugar coat it. Since 2003, 1.1 billion in reward dollars has been paid out. That's 2% of dollar purchases, not an insignificant loss by any means. I like my AXP purchase less and less.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (56734)	1/22/2016 5:07:33 PM
From: LTBH	of 77443

Believe you might find Costco membership much larger then you think: "Costco employs about 174,000 full and part-time employees. [4] In 2015, Costco had 81 million members. [20]" en.wikipedia.org Have been a member of Costco from its early days (Price Club) and believe its loss to AmEx is easily 12K annual charges per member .... provided the member switches all charges to the new Visa/Costco card. Luck LTBH

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

From: Paul Senior	1/22/2016 5:11:50 PM
	of 77443

Construction companies. I am not doing well with this sector: CBI: in@$45; now $34 SIEGY: in @$91; now $88 FLR: in @$61; now $43. I've been in FLR since 2012. I've had red on my screen on FLR, almost from day 1, and I'm tired of seeing that. Company and numbers (metrics) still look ok to me. Going on four years of red though...there's either some impairment with the company or with my brain. At some point, I'll give up and make at least a partial sale and move funds elsewhere. Meanwhile, I reentered TPC on the announcement of apparently (?) unexpected year-end results and poor(?) 2016 expectations. TPC says: " ...The Company now expects to report revenue of approximately $5.0 billion for 2015)...Revenue for 2016 is preliminarily expected to be in the range of $5.1 billion to $5.6 billion, with diluted EPS of $1.90 to $2.20." Company has been profitable 8 of past 10 years. In 2009 the avg p/e was 6.5x. Applying that multiple to $1.90/sh, I get a stock price about $12.35. Stock closed at $10.68, about when I bought today. I expect that if prospects for 2017 look good, the stock could gain back its frequently seen 10x multiplier, or maybe $19/sh. Of course, this primarily depends on management being right in their "preliminary expectation". But why should they be? They haven't been right about 2015 (apparently) or in couple of other years either. Still...I'll let myself in for a few shares. finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read

To: Paul Senior who wrote (56733)	1/22/2016 5:16:23 PM
From: Keith J	of 77443

I have one AmEx, as does my wife. Once Costco switches, I will keep the card but it probably won't get used much (it's the Hilton one with no annual fee). My wife's card is the Starwood one. Jury is out currently on what happens once the Starwood/Marriott merger is completed (Marriott has Chase Visa). So another major account could be lost there. KJ

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read

To: LTBH who wrote (56736)	1/22/2016 5:24:17 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	of 77443

Absolutely not debating that the Costco AMEX transaction amount dwarfs Fido. I would hazard a guess that the Fido spend per card is significantly more than the Costco spend/card. That's the point I was trying to make.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read