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To: Brian Sullivan who wrote (56608)	1/22/2016 1:04:06 PM
From: Paul Senior	of 76643

GM: I'll take more shares here. Positive blurb from Barron's: "General Motors ( GM ) shares are down 12% year-to-date. Earnings per share are expected to climb 14%, and the consensus has been rising. Shares now go for just five times the 2016 earnings forecast. Last week, GM raised its 2016 earnings guidance and expanded its authorized share repurchase to $19 billion to be spent through 2017. That’s roughly 20% of its stock market value. It also boosted its dividend. The new payment gives shares a yield of over 5%." Imo, too soon to be concerned about an oversupply of used cars in future with the many cars coming off leases. And I'm even less concerned about large amount of subprime auto loans. I'll take now what the market's giving me now: p/e 5 & yield 5% for GM works for me. (Although otoh...I've found it tough to make money in GM in past, so maybe I'm wrong here again.)

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56725)	1/22/2016 2:18:58 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	of 76643

V and MA certainly have the upper hand on AXP now, but this selling seems way overdone. I'll repeat the mantra I said shortly after AXP lost the Costco deal: this is a premier brand that will come back, which trades at a relatively cheap valuation (now even cheaper at 11X earnings). WB owns it, I believe they have a share repurchase in place, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if an activist investor steps in here. JMO, and maybe worthy of ignoring, given my history with the stock.

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To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (56727)	1/22/2016 3:13:30 PM
From: Paul Senior	1 Recommendation of 76643

AXP. Yeah, you have that premium brand and a relatively low stock price, and low p/e itself for AXP. So the stock should revert. At least somewhat from today's bad news. Maybe all the bad news is out now. What concerns me though is the company's business model of being a premium provider. Merchants complain about the high fees AXP charges. What's troubling to me is I don't recall the last time I saw somebody pull out an AXP card for a transaction. Ha! ==> Part of that could be I don't have premium friends and/or I don't shop at places that take the card. I guess I'm not enough of a business person or traveler or consumer to see or understand what the great benefit an AXP card is over a card from Discovery, or Visa, or MC. I believe for now, if I were adding for a 18-24 mo. hold, I'll go with more DFS (And I am considering this.). If I were adding for a very quick trade, I might go for AXP and hope for a maybe 4-5 point recovery in a couple of days/weeks/month maybe.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56728)	1/22/2016 3:31:30 PM
From: Grommit	of 76643

>> what the great benefit an AXP card is over a card from Discovery, or Visa, or MC. AmEx -- I use it for groceries and get 3% cashback otherwise I use Citi Mastercard which pays 2% cashback on everything

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56728)	1/22/2016 3:35:10 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	of 76643

I have two AMEX cards in my sleeve, Costco (which will cease to exist in April) and Fidelity AMEX (which has no annual fee, and pays me 2% cash back on all purchases). I have racked up zero interest charges (pay all my bills in a timely manner), they don't charge me an annual fee, and I get cash back. I'm guessing I'm the type of consumer AXP (or V or MA) doesn't really like.

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To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (56730)	1/22/2016 3:55:14 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	of 76643

I have two AMEX cards in my sleeve, Costco (which will cease to exist in April) and Fidelity AMEX (which has no annual fee, and pays me 2% cash back on all purchases). Fido Amex will also cease to exist this year. The affiliation was sold to US Bank Visa: thetruthaboutcreditcards.com And that's the problem with Amex - they are losing affiliations, their fees for merchants are high, and I am not so sure it's a "premium" brand anymore. Though on CoBF some people still think it's premium. And people still like its extended warranty + money back guarantees. These are applicable to straight Amex cards though, not necessarily to affiliate cards. I don't have AXP position anymore except through BRK. I won't buy unless it hits $40's I think.

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To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (56730)	1/22/2016 3:59:30 PM
From: upanddown	1 Recommendation of 76643

I have two AMEX cards in my sleeve, Costco (which will cease to exist in April) and Fidelity AMEX (which has no annual fee, and pays me 2% cash back on all purchases). I also have the same two. AXP is also going to take a hit when Fidelity switches to VISA, I believe around mid-year. I'm glad to see Fido switch to VISA since they are also dumping BOA. You can't currently set up Auto Pay on due date now unless you have a BOA account.

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To: upanddown who wrote (56732)	1/22/2016 4:28:51 PM
From: Paul Senior	of 76643

AXP. Okay, you guys have the cards; you don't give me any confidence that the merchants you are dealing with see the advantage of AmEx though. (Costco/Fidelity giving up on them) I suspect AXP stock will recover. Right now it's just likely to be one of those stocks that just goes up without me.

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To: upanddown who wrote (56732)	1/22/2016 4:37:39 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	of 76643

Wow, hadn't heard about Fido ceasing the AMEX affinity card. That's not good either. I know how much I spend, in this cash less society, I'm guessing 85% of all expenditures, cash or charge. And, the Fidelity market (and, to a much lesser degree Costco) brings in a bunch of high net worth households.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56731)	1/22/2016 4:57:45 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	of 76643

The Fido loss is not as big as the Costco loss, but you can't sugar coat it. Since 2003, 1.1 billion in reward dollars has been paid out. That's 2% of dollar purchases, not an insignificant loss by any means. I like my AXP purchase less and less.

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