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To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56711)1/20/2016 4:14:16 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 70906
 
OT.

You are welcome to short my overleveraged Liberties. Or BRK.

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To: Grommit who wrote (56706)1/20/2016 4:52:19 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70906
 
Fwiw, I'm with you guys on some buys today. I added to AHT-pe (nice recovery pop on Gommit's "pa"'s I notice. I got a fill on PSX. (This company doesn't look so easy to figure with all its business segments - midstream energy, chemicals, marketing. And it isn't even at lows. It must or ought to be somewhere in Mr. Buffet's circle-of-competence though- he keeps buying and buying. I've found it pays to follow him (and Grommit).
Also added to BRKb.

I'll build up my position in C if/as stock falls further -- if I don't lose my nerve or capital first. I continue to add to GOV (I have been assuming yield (now high yield) from leasing to government agencies beats the concern that investors have with management competence and/or non-alignment with shareholders.) I'll take more CSCO (p/e 12, half market cap in cash - should have enough resources to transition customers to cloud if they need to). Adds to several more, e.g. GILD, STAG, WCC, EPD, CYH, PSXP, MAIN, etc. All small buys.

For something not mentioned here recently, I got a fill for a seed position in Dolby Labs (DLB). Has cash, no ltd, profitable every year past ten. Has managed to triple revenues over past ten years and somewhat reduce share count. Somewhat positive article on its new business ventures here:
fool.com

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To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (56707)1/20/2016 6:29:56 PM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 70906
 
More from Barrons on some of the players in the oil patch:
barrons.com

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To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56708)1/20/2016 10:43:51 PM
From: Elroy
   of 70906
 
Speaking of shippers.....

ATHENS, GREECE--(Marketwired - Jan 20, 2016) - Capital Product Partners L.P. (NASDAQ: CPLP) today announced that its board of directors has declared a cash distribution of $0.2385 per common unit for the fourth quarter of 2015 ended December 31, 2015.

The fourth quarter common unit cash distribution will be paid on February 12, 2016, to unit holders of record on February 5, 2016.

---------------

That one dividend payment is a 6% yield on the Wednesday closing price. Totally nuts!

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To: Elroy who wrote (56704)1/21/2016 11:46:17 AM
From: Touching
   of 70906
 
80% of ammonia and nitrogen production is from natural gas, the rest mainly from coal. China and India use coal and oil, mainly coal. CF bet is on the unsustainable low cost of coal that will cause many producers to get out of the market, additionally they are betting that China cannot meet their export with the demand for ammonia and nitrogen.
If CF is right, the real short-term threat may be Iran, that sits on top of big reserves of natural gas and had its sanctions lifted recently. nevertheless their capacity to export it is still low and will be so for some time.

Until the world economy is drugged, commodities can stay low, but if US continue to raise rates an uptrend will start. Without free money the supply will slow down, IMO.
Oil is in the middle of a world price war and as soon as the victims start to fall we will have a huge volatility in the price unless we restore price control somehow. Volatility in oil will cause other commodities to be volatile.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56709)1/21/2016 3:26:58 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70906
 
BAC. I'll also add. A little to my few shares. I expect the bank to do ok over the next few years.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56715)1/21/2016 4:38:30 PM
From: Grommit
   of 70906
 
AHT-X I decided that with no news, and volume of 50,000 to 100,000 shares per day, that some institution or fund was selling. I added more AHT-A today in many (friends and relatives) accounts, at around $19. Closed at $20.48 -- up $2 today. Up 22% from my lowest buy 2 days ago ($16.73). IMO, not too late -- stock should go back to $25 soon. Very strange opportunity.

QUOTE

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56719)1/21/2016 6:30:11 PM
From: Spekulatius
   of 70906
 
I joined you too and purchased some BAC today at $13.5. I also added GS ($155) and $51.1 JPM recently. I like JPM and GS best.

Other adds are EEQ and AXE (industrial distributor, 3rd Ave value fund owns it as well).

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To: Touching who wrote (56718)1/21/2016 8:12:11 PM
From: Elroy
   of 70906
 
I'm not familiar with CF.

80% of ammonia and nitrogen production is from natural gas, the rest mainly from coal.

My fertilizer position is UAN, which I believe gets their fertilizer COGS from CVRR, a refiery operation. Those two stocks are the MLPs under CVI which is something like the parent company of the two.

UAN is a solution of urea and ammonium nitrate in water used as a fertilizer.


So it seems UAN gets their ammonia from from CVRR's natural gas refining business, and produces fertilizer. Presumably this ammonia COGS for UAN has been declining with the price of natural gas, so even though fertilizer prices are falling badly, it may be that UAN's COGS are also in decline, so maybe their results will be OK. Or maybe not, I really have no idea. We'll see.


The stock is acting like a disaster is on its way.


http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UAN+Interactive#{"allowChartStacking":true}


UAN was paying 35-40 cents per Q through Q3 2015, when they paid zero due to an unexpected plant shutdown. The shutdown is (presumably) over, so we'll see what they can do in Q4 with the declining prices. They should have 2 additional weeks of production in Q4 relative to the Q1 to Q3 in 2015 due to a planned 6 week shutdown which was amortized over the first 3 quarters of 2015. At $5.00, it seems hard to believe that UAN can spit out 35 cents again for Q4, but we'll see. They seemed to do fine when prices were declining earlier in the year, so time will tell. I'm hoping the big sell off is mainly due to the market's aversion to MLPs, aversion to high yield and aversion to commodity related companies, and NOT due to UAN-specific info. But that's just a prayer, it's not based on any special understanding of mine about the fertilizer biz :-)

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56719)1/22/2016 10:02:19 AM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 70906
 
Sometimes following WB in doesn't work out. I did. AXP now very definitely in falling knife category.
Looked at my trade log of several years back, sold out LM above $31. After a trip to near $60, it's now hovering near $30. Considerable outflows of AUM and a non-cash charge.
Of course LM is now back on my watch list.

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