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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


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To: Investor2 who wrote (56693)1/20/2016 1:15:20 PM
From: Wallace Rivers
1 Recommendation   of 70368
 
FWIW there has been more talk "on the Street" about CVX cutting its dividend than XOM. The screens I use (from my Fidelity web site) show CVX with a dividend payout ratio of 93% and XOM of 63% (as of 9/30/15). I've also seen the CVX CEO on TV saying the dividend is a very important priority, the implication being the company, in my mind, would cut only as a last resort. My screens also show CVX with a book value of $82 on 9/30, so it is trading below that figure, but again that is a moving target. XOM at about $41 as of 9/30.

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From: Graham Osborn1/20/2016 2:25:10 PM
   of 70368
 
There's been a good bit of discussion here on shipping companies. One, SSW, I've been doing some credit forensics on since the company had apparent grown in rev and tangible book through 08-09 but the stock lost 3/4 of its value or so in a few months. I cannot locate any information that the company was in immediate danger of default. The issue seems more related to the fact that shipping companies have highly illiquid assets and can only fetch a fraction of the purchase price at fire sale (no surprises there). So I would say the tangible book figures for these and other heavy industrials are reflexive and should be treated with extreme caution.

Microcaps tanking along with the Russell on low volume today. I hold IEHC/ MKRS with orders to acquire TTLO. The puts on CAR, MDT, AGN, and F are offsetting some of this. I tried to buy puts on GS/ ETP today but this is a sellers market with all the volatility. A bit over 60% cash.

Good luck to all,
Graham

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56705)1/20/2016 3:26:38 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 70368
 
I continue buying stuff (AAPL, BAC, possibly BRK, and still more oil cos - haha). Will take a vacation when I run out of cash. Have fun.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56709)1/20/2016 3:48:12 PM
From: Graham Osborn
   of 70368
 
The online brokers aren't dealing accurate figures on microcaps. I was quoted down 30% on my two largest holdings. I thought what the hell and entered limits to buy more of both. Still waiting for fills at the quote :) Happy days..

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56709)1/20/2016 3:52:45 PM
From: Graham Osborn
   of 70368
 
The more I look at BRK's portfolio the more I realize how much leveraged crap they hold - e.g. CHTR. Sorry Warren/ apprentices. Whatever the indices do I doubt whether BRK will outperform them much..

Speaking of leveraged crap, looks like I just got another fill on AGN puts. Some pockets of the market are still seen as a shelter from volatility..

Wow look at the indices right before the close! This is getting good :)))

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To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56711)1/20/2016 4:12:06 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70368
 
Re: "Speaking of...": Please don't. This is not a thread to discuss specific options plays or short opportunities. We're looking for more Ben Graham "Intelligent Investor" or late-stage Graham-type stocks. That's what I say we say we're looking for anyway (usually/mostly) --g-.

Paul Senior,
moderator

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To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56710)1/20/2016 4:12:16 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 70368
 
Yeah, that's microcaps to you.

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To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56711)1/20/2016 4:14:16 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 70368
 
OT.

You are welcome to short my overleveraged Liberties. Or BRK.

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To: Grommit who wrote (56706)1/20/2016 4:52:19 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70368
 
Fwiw, I'm with you guys on some buys today. I added to AHT-pe (nice recovery pop on Gommit's "pa"'s I notice. I got a fill on PSX. (This company doesn't look so easy to figure with all its business segments - midstream energy, chemicals, marketing. And it isn't even at lows. It must or ought to be somewhere in Mr. Buffet's circle-of-competence though- he keeps buying and buying. I've found it pays to follow him (and Grommit).
Also added to BRKb.

I'll build up my position in C if/as stock falls further -- if I don't lose my nerve or capital first. I continue to add to GOV (I have been assuming yield (now high yield) from leasing to government agencies beats the concern that investors have with management competence and/or non-alignment with shareholders.) I'll take more CSCO (p/e 12, half market cap in cash - should have enough resources to transition customers to cloud if they need to). Adds to several more, e.g. GILD, STAG, WCC, EPD, CYH, PSXP, MAIN, etc. All small buys.

For something not mentioned here recently, I got a fill for a seed position in Dolby Labs (DLB). Has cash, no ltd, profitable every year past ten. Has managed to triple revenues over past ten years and somewhat reduce share count. Somewhat positive article on its new business ventures here:
fool.com

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To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (56707)1/20/2016 6:29:56 PM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 70368
 
More from Barrons on some of the players in the oil patch:
barrons.com

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