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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


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To: Touching who wrote (56691)1/19/2016 12:18:41 PM
From: richardred
   of 69235
 
Thanks for the opinion. I believe Privately held Otter Box is a good gauge as a top competitor. Both this company and Otter Box have grown through acquisitions. I believe the cell phone protective case and glass market will be a good growth market going forward. (New & replacement market)
If the PE remains 11 or below. While margins and cash flow hold, or expand moving forward. IMO it should also increase the M&A speculative appeal of this company.

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To: Elroy who wrote (56676)1/20/2016 12:14:02 AM
From: Shane M
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Do you have any insights on why UAN is hitting new lows other than market madness?
Lots of new capacity coming online also. I'm a longer term CF holder so am following from that view, but things do move fast. CF presentations fairly convincingly argued that even with the expansions marginal production cost (imports) would have sufficiently high price, but the winds are blowing against. Commodity prices tanking means less reason for farmers to invest in fertilizer.

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To: Shane M who wrote (56703)1/20/2016 3:51:58 AM
From: Elroy
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Lots of new capacity coming online also. I'm a longer term CF holder so am following from that view, but things do move fast. CF presentations fairly convincingly argued that even with the expansions marginal production cost (imports) would have sufficiently high price, but the winds are blowing against. Commodity prices tanking means less reason for farmers to invest in fertilizer.

Thanks, someone else pointed out that the price of fertilizer seems to have had a bad drop in the past few months. I think lower oil prices also lower the cost of fertilizer manufacturing, not I'm not really sure on that.

So....if the business is really doing poorly, it should show up in UAN's Q4 numbers, right? Does fertilizer generally sell into a spot market price?

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From: Paul Senior1/20/2016 11:09:47 AM
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OT: Rough day today. Of the many, many, many stocks I own I only see four that are in the green right now (AN, ZMH, ALGT, SAVE - and these just slightly green.) Everything else is red or unchanged. Geez. It looks like early 2009 again.

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From: Grommit1/20/2016 11:39:48 AM
   of 69235
 
Been buying pref stocks lately. Today was AHT-A, yielding 12.8%, at $16.73 (my buy price). A lot of nice ones are below par now (STAG-B, CDR-B for example). I do not understand AHT-A recent price drop. Common has not dropped as it would on some general news.

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To: Investor2 who wrote (56693)1/20/2016 1:15:20 PM
From: Wallace Rivers
1 Recommendation   of 69235
 
FWIW there has been more talk "on the Street" about CVX cutting its dividend than XOM. The screens I use (from my Fidelity web site) show CVX with a dividend payout ratio of 93% and XOM of 63% (as of 9/30/15). I've also seen the CVX CEO on TV saying the dividend is a very important priority, the implication being the company, in my mind, would cut only as a last resort. My screens also show CVX with a book value of $82 on 9/30, so it is trading below that figure, but again that is a moving target. XOM at about $41 as of 9/30.

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From: Graham Osborn1/20/2016 2:25:10 PM
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There's been a good bit of discussion here on shipping companies. One, SSW, I've been doing some credit forensics on since the company had apparent grown in rev and tangible book through 08-09 but the stock lost 3/4 of its value or so in a few months. I cannot locate any information that the company was in immediate danger of default. The issue seems more related to the fact that shipping companies have highly illiquid assets and can only fetch a fraction of the purchase price at fire sale (no surprises there). So I would say the tangible book figures for these and other heavy industrials are reflexive and should be treated with extreme caution.

Microcaps tanking along with the Russell on low volume today. I hold IEHC/ MKRS with orders to acquire TTLO. The puts on CAR, MDT, AGN, and F are offsetting some of this. I tried to buy puts on GS/ ETP today but this is a sellers market with all the volatility. A bit over 60% cash.

Good luck to all,
Graham

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56705)1/20/2016 3:26:38 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
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I continue buying stuff (AAPL, BAC, possibly BRK, and still more oil cos - haha). Will take a vacation when I run out of cash. Have fun.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56709)1/20/2016 3:48:12 PM
From: Graham Osborn
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The online brokers aren't dealing accurate figures on microcaps. I was quoted down 30% on my two largest holdings. I thought what the hell and entered limits to buy more of both. Still waiting for fills at the quote :) Happy days..

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56709)1/20/2016 3:52:45 PM
From: Graham Osborn
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The more I look at BRK's portfolio the more I realize how much leveraged crap they hold - e.g. CHTR. Sorry Warren/ apprentices. Whatever the indices do I doubt whether BRK will outperform them much..

Speaking of leveraged crap, looks like I just got another fill on AGN puts. Some pockets of the market are still seen as a shelter from volatility..

Wow look at the indices right before the close! This is getting good :)))

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