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Strategies & Market Trends Value Investing

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To: William Cloutier who wrote (56633)	1/17/2016 5:49:52 AM
From: Gottfried	of 77306

Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity research.stlouisfed.org related to what you requested

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From: Graham Osborn	1/17/2016 8:29:43 AM
	of 77306

This message is for PM ONLY since I don't want to divert the thread - is there anyone out there with good short ideas and if so would you mind sharing with me? I am most interested in ideas with ample liquidity, put terms dating at least out to Jan 2017, and a credit-related reason why the stock could lose 2/3 or more of its value in the next 12 months. Thanks much and good luck! Graham

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From: Spekulatius	1/17/2016 8:05:52 PM
	1 Recommendation of 77306

Barron's roundtable: barrons.com (Search for title in Google, if link does not open article through paywall) Discusses some stocks (ETN, AXP) discussed here. Also mentioned the Junkbond / stock correlation that I was referring to in my earlier posts.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56671)	1/18/2016 10:54:09 AM
From: Graham Osborn	of 77306

Tea leaves may or may not be useful.. I remember someone who was long WCOM many years ago :)

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To: Keith J who wrote (56679)	1/18/2016 12:26:37 PM
From: Paul Senior	of 77306

Thanks for link to fertilizer prices. I hadn't realized how far those commodity prices had fallen. I started a tracking position in YARIY last week. Maybe a mistake. I also reentered ADM last week for a small tracking position. Doesn't seem to have that much exposure to commodity fertilizer prices. Company has many years of dividend increases. Yield 3.3%. I'll likely add more shares if/as stock falls. Not a great value at current price, but company should be able to get through current market turmoil. ==== OT: Which reminds me: I believe I'll change my terminology from "taking a tracking position" to something like "starting a seed position". I really already have a watch list to track stocks I'm interested in, if I can remember to look at it. Establishing a seed position seems to more accurately describe what I'm interested in doing when I enter a position for just a few shares.

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From: richardred	1/18/2016 1:32:37 PM
	1 Recommendation of 77306

I've added a stock to my watch list a little while back that I think is coming into being a reasonable good value. The company is selling a useful product IMO. Being I've broke two previous cell phone screens. I have Zagg protective glass on my new phone. The recent PE seems reasonable now given the broad market decline. It has 10% QTRly growth, and the recent downfall from it's 52 week high caught my attention. . If it tanks from the current price of 9.05. I'm interested. Thoughts? ZAGG- Symbol finance.yahoo.com P.S. If you register your purchase and the Zagg glass breaks. They will replace it. I already asked people who used the guarantee. They are happy with the product.

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To: Robohogs who wrote (56678)	1/18/2016 3:34:21 PM
From: Graham Osborn	of 77306

PSRs like PEs are getting misleading. If Company X has MC 100M and does 100M bond offering to buy Company Y resulting in double sales for consolidated Company XY, shareholders haven't gained any return on capital yet your PSR (assuming the stock doesn't move) is cut in half. For that reason I prefer EV/ Rev. Of course there is the cyclical nature of some businesses at play as well.

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To: Robohogs who wrote (56677)	1/18/2016 3:41:59 PM
From: Graham Osborn	of 77306

I'm seeing the same thing. I did a screen today for MC > 1B, EV > 3*MC and these debt-laden stocks (including many large banks) are in a bear market every bit as bad as 08. The crisis everyone keeps worrying about is already half through here. However FANG, real estate, healthcare and other large pockets continue to carry the market. I'm not expecting a bounce off the 08 lows this time though, pessimist that I am ;)

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56686)	1/18/2016 4:36:06 PM
From: Touching	of 77306

Hi all, I'm new here. I practice value investing. @Paul: what about CF? Did you had a look to the company? They are the biggest, with Yara, in the nitrogen field. In Q3 2015 they gave a pretty wide picture on geopolitical scenarios affecting the fertilizers in 2016, 2017, 2018 an how they are going to allocate cash. ADM is a nice play. It does not pass my quantitative screen for moat, but it scream in my value screen as undervalued relatively to industry, sector, market and on a DCF projection basis ( price/fair value < 0.65 ). It has a nice risk/reward profile based on historic valuations as well.

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To: richardred who wrote (56687)	1/18/2016 5:52:26 PM
From: Touching	of 77306

it looks like a nice play. if you can stomach the volatility it could generate very good returns. From the numbers profitability is top, margin are very good, the price is close or below fair value, growth prospects are good. analyze very well the competitive advantages in terms of products, suppliers, customers, competitors

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