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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


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To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56673)1/17/2016 5:06:37 AM
From: bruwin
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OT
"some of the great fortunes of our time will be made in commodities"

Hmmm ... I wonder. It could be a case as to which commodities will contribute to those fortunes.

One wonders if previously much used but finite commodities such as oil will feature as strongly as they have in the past. Apart from their finite aspect, it's also getting harder to find oil deposits that are relatively cheap to extract, as one find in Saudi Arabia.

Then there's also the pollution risk of oil either when extracted or when transported. Seems to me the "world" is getting somewhat fed up with the negative side effects of fossil fuels.

As a result we've seen far more effort, research, investment, etc.., in renewable energies.

Now sun and wind cannot provide the 24 hour/per day RELIABLE base loads that industrial countries need. As a result a lot of work and research has gone into forms of storage capability to store that solar energy when the sun goes down, but there's still a long way to go before that storage capacity becomes large enough to supplement a country's overall base load.
But sun and wind, etc ..., can add to a country's power grid, especially for ordinary households, and especially where solar panels on roofs or wind can add to a country's electricity grid and give the house owner a credit on his electricity account.

But that BASE LOAD needs to come from a reliable, ongoing, reasonably non-polluting source of ADEQUATE power. IMO that can only be Nuclear Power.
Some will holler out about safety and impending tragedy, etc.. as we saw in Russia and Japan.
Well, France has been getting over 70% of its base electricity supply from its own developed, designed and built nuclear power stations for many years ... without any problems.

And that most recent tragedy in Japan was primarily caused by the fact that when the Tsunami wave hit the coast of Japan it swamped and cut off the generators that were supposed to kick in and remove the radioactive stored rods. Had those generators been positioned in a more sensible situation there would not have been the problem because the rods would have been lifted and therefore no melt down.

Apart from the current sources of renewable energies such as sun, wind, tidal which can be there at times and not be there at other times, I would like to propose another source of ongoing energy which is there 365/24/7 and which doesn't disappear behind a cloud or dissipate when the wind dies down .... ---> OCEAN CURRENTS.

In those parts of the world where ocean currents move alongside coastlines, they can be tapped into and their ongoing energy supply used to turn something. Because when you turn something you can generate alternating current ... i.e. your electricity supply.

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To: William Cloutier who wrote (56633)1/17/2016 5:49:52 AM
From: Gottfried
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Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
research.stlouisfed.org

related to what you requested

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From: Graham Osborn1/17/2016 8:29:43 AM
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This message is for **PM ONLY** since I don't want to divert the thread - is there anyone out there with good short ideas and if so would you mind sharing with me? I am most interested in ideas with ample liquidity, put terms dating at least out to Jan 2017, and a credit-related reason why the stock could lose 2/3 or more of its value in the next 12 months. Thanks much and good luck!

Graham

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From: Spekulatius1/17/2016 8:05:52 PM
1 Recommendation   of 68966
 
Barron's roundtable:
barrons.com

(Search for title in Google, if link does not open article through paywall)

Discusses some stocks (ETN, AXP) discussed here. Also mentioned the Junkbond / stock correlation that I was referring to in my earlier posts.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56671)1/18/2016 10:54:09 AM
From: Graham Osborn
   of 68966
 
Tea leaves may or may not be useful.. I remember someone who was long WCOM many years ago :)

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To: Keith J who wrote (56679)1/18/2016 12:26:37 PM
From: Paul Senior
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Thanks for link to fertilizer prices. I hadn't realized how far those commodity prices had fallen.

I started a tracking position in YARIY last week. Maybe a mistake.

I also reentered ADM last week for a small tracking position. Doesn't seem to have that much exposure to commodity fertilizer prices. Company has many years of dividend increases. Yield 3.3%. I'll likely add more shares if/as stock falls. Not a great value at current price, but company should be able to get through current market turmoil.

====
OT: Which reminds me: I believe I'll change my terminology from "taking a tracking position" to something like "starting a seed position". I really already have a watch list to track stocks I'm interested in, if I can remember to look at it. Establishing a seed position seems to more accurately describe what I'm interested in doing when I enter a position for just a few shares.

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From: richardred1/18/2016 1:32:37 PM
1 Recommendation   of 68966
 
I've added a stock to my watch list a little while back that I think is coming into being a reasonable good value. The company is selling a useful product IMO. Being I've broke two previous cell phone screens. I have Zagg protective glass on my new phone. The recent PE seems reasonable now given the broad market decline. It has 10% QTRly growth, and the recent downfall from it's 52 week high caught my attention. . If it tanks from the current price of 9.05. I'm interested. Thoughts?
ZAGG- Symbol
finance.yahoo.com

P.S. If you register your purchase and the Zagg glass breaks. They will replace it. I already asked people who used the guarantee. They are happy with the product.

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To: Robohogs who wrote (56678)1/18/2016 3:34:21 PM
From: Graham Osborn
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PSRs like PEs are getting misleading. If Company X has MC 100M and does 100M bond offering to buy Company Y resulting in double sales for consolidated Company XY, shareholders haven't gained any return on capital yet your PSR (assuming the stock doesn't move) is cut in half. For that reason I prefer EV/ Rev. Of course there is the cyclical nature of some businesses at play as well.

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To: Robohogs who wrote (56677)1/18/2016 3:41:59 PM
From: Graham Osborn
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I'm seeing the same thing. I did a screen today for MC > 1B, EV > 3*MC and these debt-laden stocks (including many large banks) are in a bear market every bit as bad as 08. The crisis everyone keeps worrying about is already half through here. However FANG, real estate, healthcare and other large pockets continue to carry the market. I'm not expecting a bounce off the 08 lows this time though, pessimist that I am ;)

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56686)1/18/2016 4:36:06 PM
From: Touching
   of 68966
 
Hi all, I'm new here. I practice value investing.
@Paul: what about CF? Did you had a look to the company? They are the biggest, with Yara, in the nitrogen field. In Q3 2015 they gave a pretty wide picture on geopolitical scenarios affecting the fertilizers in 2016, 2017, 2018 an how they are going to allocate cash.
ADM is a nice play. It does not pass my quantitative screen for moat, but it scream in my value screen as undervalued relatively to industry, sector, market and on a DCF projection basis ( price/fair value < 0.65 ). It has a nice risk/reward profile based on historic valuations as well.

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