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To: E_K_S who wrote (56668)1/16/2016 8:16:24 PM
From: Elroy
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Do you have any insights on why UAN is hitting new lows other than market madness?

I thought I was lucky to get into that one below $8.00, now it's $5.76! I understand high yield, MLPs and energy is getting sold off, but hopefully this one is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Any reason to expect a disappointing distribution for Q4 2015? I'm hoping they pit out more than 35 cents, which makes the annualized yield above 20%.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56667)1/16/2016 8:22:24 PM
From: Robohogs
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I saw a chart before last week that the average stock was down 30+% from the highs. That means 35-40% now. But the algos keeps selling. The moves down are now too fast driven by a horrid SEC. Small investors will go away.

I have seen modestly higher E levels putting SPX near 14. With bonds at 2%, that is cheap.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (56667)1/16/2016 8:49:19 PM
From: Robohogs
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Yardeni last weekend had consensus near 126-127. That gives PE just below 15x. Judging history, that may come down 10% more. It used to be 150 btw. The decline is about 10% more than usual and presto stocks go down.

The yardeni data is interesting. I will post link. BUT PEs have been pretty steady since 2000 with exception of 2009. P/S however has been declining for mid and small cap S&P indices - not exactly real small caps as still quite large. So stocks rallied furiously (obviously not as much as large caps over whole period) with revenues keeping pace and PEs only modestly expanding. These record margins we keep hearing about have to be the absorber and they are. SPX500 earnings are at peak margins. Mid and small cap margins are off 1 full percentage point over last decade or so. On mid to high single digit margins, that is not small.

yardeni.com

Jon

PS. Anyone know a site with PEs by sector or better yet a list of SPX stocks and their PEs?

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To: Elroy who wrote (56676)1/16/2016 9:00:01 PM
From: Keith J
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Fertilizer prices are declining; and low agricultural commodity prices are not going to support higher levels of crop planting. Margins will be squeezed.

farmfutures.com

KJ

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To: Robohogs who wrote (56678)1/16/2016 9:25:12 PM
From: Robohogs
1 Recommendation   of 69553
 
Page 40 has interesting splits on margins that go a long way to explaining stock moves and economy. I must say midcap industrials hitting peak margins now surprised me given weakness of recovery. Large cap industrials obviously hit by industrial recession just starting and strong dollar. And pharma price gouging and HMO Obamacare gouging are nowhere to be seen.

BTW this is my usual PE site and it just updated. PEs actually look higher than last week meaning a big drop occurred in forward estimates from Birinyi.

wsj.com

Jon

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To: Graham Osborn who wrote (56673)1/17/2016 5:06:37 AM
From: bruwin
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OT
"some of the great fortunes of our time will be made in commodities"

Hmmm ... I wonder. It could be a case as to which commodities will contribute to those fortunes.

One wonders if previously much used but finite commodities such as oil will feature as strongly as they have in the past. Apart from their finite aspect, it's also getting harder to find oil deposits that are relatively cheap to extract, as one find in Saudi Arabia.

Then there's also the pollution risk of oil either when extracted or when transported. Seems to me the "world" is getting somewhat fed up with the negative side effects of fossil fuels.

As a result we've seen far more effort, research, investment, etc.., in renewable energies.

Now sun and wind cannot provide the 24 hour/per day RELIABLE base loads that industrial countries need. As a result a lot of work and research has gone into forms of storage capability to store that solar energy when the sun goes down, but there's still a long way to go before that storage capacity becomes large enough to supplement a country's overall base load.
But sun and wind, etc ..., can add to a country's power grid, especially for ordinary households, and especially where solar panels on roofs or wind can add to a country's electricity grid and give the house owner a credit on his electricity account.

But that BASE LOAD needs to come from a reliable, ongoing, reasonably non-polluting source of ADEQUATE power. IMO that can only be Nuclear Power.
Some will holler out about safety and impending tragedy, etc.. as we saw in Russia and Japan.
Well, France has been getting over 70% of its base electricity supply from its own developed, designed and built nuclear power stations for many years ... without any problems.

And that most recent tragedy in Japan was primarily caused by the fact that when the Tsunami wave hit the coast of Japan it swamped and cut off the generators that were supposed to kick in and remove the radioactive stored rods. Had those generators been positioned in a more sensible situation there would not have been the problem because the rods would have been lifted and therefore no melt down.

Apart from the current sources of renewable energies such as sun, wind, tidal which can be there at times and not be there at other times, I would like to propose another source of ongoing energy which is there 365/24/7 and which doesn't disappear behind a cloud or dissipate when the wind dies down .... ---> OCEAN CURRENTS.

In those parts of the world where ocean currents move alongside coastlines, they can be tapped into and their ongoing energy supply used to turn something. Because when you turn something you can generate alternating current ... i.e. your electricity supply.

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To: William Cloutier who wrote (56633)1/17/2016 5:49:52 AM
From: Gottfried
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Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
research.stlouisfed.org

related to what you requested

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From: Graham Osborn1/17/2016 8:29:43 AM
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This message is for **PM ONLY** since I don't want to divert the thread - is there anyone out there with good short ideas and if so would you mind sharing with me? I am most interested in ideas with ample liquidity, put terms dating at least out to Jan 2017, and a credit-related reason why the stock could lose 2/3 or more of its value in the next 12 months. Thanks much and good luck!

Graham

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From: Spekulatius1/17/2016 8:05:52 PM
1 Recommendation   of 69553
 
Barron's roundtable:
barrons.com

(Search for title in Google, if link does not open article through paywall)

Discusses some stocks (ETN, AXP) discussed here. Also mentioned the Junkbond / stock correlation that I was referring to in my earlier posts.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56671)1/18/2016 10:54:09 AM
From: Graham Osborn
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Tea leaves may or may not be useful.. I remember someone who was long WCOM many years ago :)

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