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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


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To: RockyBalboa who wrote (29619)3/4/2008 5:35:04 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 69552
 
Caught CIT at under $20 and added a few shares to my small position.

Getting past the scary headline,
"CIT Shares Tumble on Target Price Cut",

we see,

"In a note to clients Tuesday, Bruce W. Harting cut the stock's 12-month target price to $39 from $42...Harting also lowered his full-year earnings estimate by 25 cents to $4 per share."

biz.yahoo.com

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To: RockyBalboa who wrote (29619)3/4/2008 5:36:31 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 69552
 
duplicate

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30231)3/4/2008 5:40:21 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 69552
 
In addition to AZN today, I have been adding to exploratory positions in Royal Dutch Shell and Hertz as they too continue to drop.

finance.yahoo.com

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (30195)3/5/2008 12:38:44 AM
From: Spekulatius
   of 69552
 
EP, WMZ, I decided to switch from EP to WMZ. WMZ is a newly IPO'd MLP for WMB's pipeline assets. it currently is trading below the IPO price of 20$ and I think it has good prospects for distribution growth because of "dropdown" of assets to this MLP.

I think WMB is interested to getting WMZ to a 9% yield at which point they are entitled to 50% of the incremental earning gains 9as the general partner).

WMZ trades at around <10x EV/EBITDA which is a discount to most other pipeline MLP,s despite lower leverage. Right now they only own a 35% stake in Northwest Pipeline (spanning across the Rocky Mountains, WA and OR).

My notes:
EquityL
33.5M units @20 =667M$
Debt =243M$ (this is WMZ 35% share of Northwest debt)
EBITDA approx 90M$
Distribution: 1.15$/unit

I think this is a better and lower risk bet than EP which trades at 10X EBITDA but this includes the volatile E&P segment (which usually command much smaller multiples than Pipeline assets). I keep this position in an IRA and it's going to be small enough so i don't have to worry about the 100$/year reporting limit.

As I mentioned before i am very bullish on North American NG and I believe that Pipelines are a secular and low risk growth story that is going to benefit from much stronger NG pricing, IMO. Even if NG does not rise as expected the owner of MLP unit's still should do OK.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (30233)3/5/2008 1:11:04 PM
From: rllee
   of 69552
 
What is the difference between WPZ and WMZ? WPZ is now paying 6%+ while WMZ has not yet declared a dividend. However WPZ stock price is near lows.

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To: Grantcw who wrote (30217)3/5/2008 3:27:12 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 69552
 
Following Spekulatius and you into FCH today with a small exploratory buy. Intending to add if stock will drop on now adverse news.

finance.yahoo.com

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To: valueminded who wrote (30054)3/5/2008 3:28:57 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 69552
 
Another new low in FSP. Adding to my position here as it drops.

finance.yahoo.com

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From: Paul Senior3/5/2008 3:36:45 PM
   of 69552
 
Buying reit OLP today. Stock below stated b.v. 8+% div. yield.
They invest in net-lease properties. "Substantially all of our leases are “net leases”, under which the tenant is responsible for real estate taxes, insurance and ordinary maintenance and repairs."

finance.yahoo.com

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30235)3/5/2008 3:52:57 PM
From: Broken_Clock
   of 69552
 
You still holding alj? Earnings after the bell. They expect a soft start w/gasoline by the end of April.

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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (30238)3/5/2008 4:05:28 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 69552
 
Yes, still holding. Not sure if I want to add. (I have several large positions in other refinery stocks.)

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