| To: Suma who wrote (30226) | 3/4/2008 1:10:51 PM | | From: Paul Senior | | | | Gaming (gambling related) stocks:
finance.yahoo.com
Not sure which are "values". Sold a little IGT recently just to trim position, free up some cash. Stock at multiyear high. I believe I've read that slot machines are a cyclical business, and we are now in the beginning of a new buying cycle by casinos, as a newer generation of slots is being or has been developed. So maybe slot makers will show good sales and earnings gains over next few quarters. Who knows?
PENN confuses me. If the buyout offer goes through in the next few months, the stock will rise. If the offer collapses, in all other instances that I've seen where the deal gets canceled, the stock drops - usually back to where it was before the offer was made or where buyers suspected an offer was in the works. Sometimes the stock drops suddenly even below such a point, and then usually (it seems to me), the stock recovers to where it was before the offer. With PENN though, I believe the stock, near 12-mo. low, already is down to that level. So if the offer is indeed rescinded, I am hoping and expecting that the stock won't get killed. A retail investor coming in now is buying PENN for its business and prospects, and gets kind of a call option on the possibility of a fairly quick and good profit if the buyout comes to fruition.
I am considering adding to my position.
You could look at CNTY (Century Casinos). I like it because compared to others in the sector, it has a reasonable (lower) p/e and not as much d/e. One of its casinos is in Edmonton, which should do very well given the Alberta oil sands boom. I like that. But it may not be relevant since CNTY is diversified with several other casinos and casino operations.
OPMR is cash-in-search-of-a-business. They processed on-line gaming until that business was made illegal in the USA. I find the cash/sh number attractive given the stock price. And am hoping, of course, the management doesn't fritter away the monies, spend it egregiously on themselves, or make an unwise business investment with it. |
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| From: rllee | 3/4/2008 1:35:45 PM | | | | | | | All of the high-yielding names on my 30 or so watchlist are red. I guess yields are useless if the sky is falling. All companies are going bankrupt anyways. |
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| To: rllee who wrote (30228) | 3/4/2008 2:32:43 PM | | From: Wallace Rivers | | | | WB (owned by virtue of a tax loss swap at way higher prices) now yielding 8.5%. Gee, I guess Mr. Market is saying that div. won't hold!
Oh well, I got clobbered on TMA, in at 15, out at 10, but at least that one didn't extract the maximum! |
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| To: RockyBalboa who wrote (29619) | 3/4/2008 5:35:04 PM | | From: Paul Senior | | | | Caught CIT at under $20 and added a few shares to my small position.
Getting past the scary headline,
"CIT Shares Tumble on Target Price Cut",
we see,
"In a note to clients Tuesday, Bruce W. Harting cut the stock's 12-month target price to $39 from $42...Harting also lowered his full-year earnings estimate by 25 cents to $4 per share."
biz.yahoo.com |
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| To: Spekulatius who wrote (30195) | 3/5/2008 12:38:44 AM | | From: Spekulatius | | | | EP, WMZ, I decided to switch from EP to WMZ. WMZ is a newly IPO'd MLP for WMB's pipeline assets. it currently is trading below the IPO price of 20$ and I think it has good prospects for distribution growth because of "dropdown" of assets to this MLP.
I think WMB is interested to getting WMZ to a 9% yield at which point they are entitled to 50% of the incremental earning gains 9as the general partner).
WMZ trades at around <10x EV/EBITDA which is a discount to most other pipeline MLP,s despite lower leverage. Right now they only own a 35% stake in Northwest Pipeline (spanning across the Rocky Mountains, WA and OR).
My notes:
EquityL
33.5M units @20 =667M$
Debt =243M$ (this is WMZ 35% share of Northwest debt)
EBITDA approx 90M$
Distribution: 1.15$/unit
I think this is a better and lower risk bet than EP which trades at 10X EBITDA but this includes the volatile E&P segment (which usually command much smaller multiples than Pipeline assets). I keep this position in an IRA and it's going to be small enough so i don't have to worry about the 100$/year reporting limit.
As I mentioned before i am very bullish on North American NG and I believe that Pipelines are a secular and low risk growth story that is going to benefit from much stronger NG pricing, IMO. Even if NG does not rise as expected the owner of MLP unit's still should do OK. |
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