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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing

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To: richardred who wrote (30211)3/3/2008 12:32:01 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 71258
Upped my few shares of BMS today, fwiw.

This diversified packaging company is kind of a steady Eddy. S&P has a 12-mo. target of $27 (Stock at $24.73):

"Our risk assessment reflects the possibility of
softer global economic conditions, higher raw
material prices, and difficulty in integrating
acquisitions. However, BMS has an S&P Quality
Ranking of A, which indicates historically stable
earnings and dividend growth."

S&P rates the stock as "hold".

Perhaps they'll be right. Looks like a buy to me for me though.

Stock has traded every year for past ten at least at 16x earnings. Using S&P's '08 earning est. of $1.85, the stock sometime in next 9-12 months will hit at least $30 (if past ten years results can be counted on again in the this, the 11th year).

If not, a buyer is still holding a stock in a decent quality company which has increased its dividend every year for at least the past ten, and currently yields 3.4%.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30218)3/3/2008 1:49:30 PM
From: richardred
   of 71258
FWIW -I followed you in today. Besides your comments. A leader in food packaging. 34% of sales overseas with them owning the biggest packaging company in Brazil. China has so much potential for oversea growth if they can expand their presents. IMO-Although their product lines are diverse. Value added in food packaging will be a necessity. Especially in light of rising food prices witch will need good barrier protection. This to be keep food fresher for longer. The company's stability, timely share price weakness, and untimely technical and fundamentals make it a choice for my IRA. Of coarse most any quality undervalued companies have a percentage of speculative appeal as a target. IMO- In packaging, BMS is most likely to be the acquirer than the acquired. That's where the hope or luck as some would say comes in.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30218)3/3/2008 2:47:24 PM
From: Grommit
   of 71258
BMS - i agree that it looks like a nice safe company. and the insider buys are a plus. here's the data i have that seems to indicate a lower PE than 16.

from corp presentation:
10 year sales growth 8%
10 year EPS growth 6.6%
10 year cash flow 10%
target sales growth 6% to 8%
target EPS 10%
target CF 10%

from yahoo:
ROE 12%
industry PE 14
EPS growth 2008 / 2007 = 4%
EPS growth 2009 / 2008 = 9%

so their present earnings of 1.73 = PE of 14.4 (at $25 price)
fairly valued, or a bit overvalued, imo.
prob a good bet, but don't expect the moon.
unless they beat their own expectations / targets.

better bets to make out there...

but an old presentation

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To: Grommit who wrote (30220)3/3/2008 3:50:54 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 71258
BMS. I'll clarify. Looking at the S&P past ten year history, the lowest high p/e number was 16 (the p/e in the year 2000). In every other year, the p/e got above 16. I'm saying I hope the p/e will, in better days sometime in the next 12-18 months, get to 16 or better yet again as it has in each year of the past decade. (I am expecting no decline in earnings/sh.)

And I haven't mentioned how low the p/e for BMS has been. Looking at that, if the p/e currently about 14, fell to the decade's low it would be at 9 (Which occurred in year 2000, according to the S&P numbers)

Imo, Bemis is a good company now at a fair price. Yes, there are better values out there. Every day seemingly. Still, if anyone could be comfortable about any stock or business these days, Bemis at current price, could be one. For a small position. In a diversified portfolio, of course -g-.

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To: RockyBalboa who wrote (30201)3/3/2008 4:36:41 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 71258
Fwiw, I've taken on a few shares of Hertz (HRZ) today. Intending to add if/as stock drops further on no adverse news.

I'll pass on CAR for now.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30222)3/4/2008 6:27:51 AM
From: Madharry
   of 71258
i bought a little lottery ticket on afn. Daniel COhen and other directors bought shares in the 9s in 2007, and omega ( leon cooperman)_ and NWQ are 5%+shareholders as of 12/31/07. I have no idea whether $2.60 is the right price or not.

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To: Madharry who wrote (30223)3/4/2008 9:54:47 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 71258
AFN/lottery tickets/PENN. Yes, AFN as we discussed last year. Unfortunately that's when I bought my lottery ticket. If stock triples, I'll still have a losing ticket.

Decided my better bet is to buy the stock of an actual lottery maker. -g-
Been buying small of Scientific Games ([t]SGMS[/t] recently. (Not a value stock)

Holding shares of all gaming stocks we have discussed here. Somewhat baffled at price of PENN. Discount to takeover price is very large. If so many people believe deal won't go through, I would expect to have seen some media news of the problems/outlook that the low PENN stock price is apparently reflecting.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30224)3/4/2008 11:36:46 AM
From: Madharry
   of 71258 getting whacked today . down 12%. i have no idea why. if i didnt own a boatload i d be buying here and may stll do so if i can free up some cash.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30224)3/4/2008 12:11:32 PM
From: Suma
   of 71258
If you have a second Paul would you list your gaming stocks.
This whole economy and market is a crap shoot so I may as well look at the gaming industry as it may digest the whole

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To: Suma who wrote (30226)3/4/2008 1:10:51 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 71258
Gaming (gambling related) stocks:

Not sure which are "values". Sold a little IGT recently just to trim position, free up some cash. Stock at multiyear high. I believe I've read that slot machines are a cyclical business, and we are now in the beginning of a new buying cycle by casinos, as a newer generation of slots is being or has been developed. So maybe slot makers will show good sales and earnings gains over next few quarters. Who knows?

PENN confuses me. If the buyout offer goes through in the next few months, the stock will rise. If the offer collapses, in all other instances that I've seen where the deal gets canceled, the stock drops - usually back to where it was before the offer was made or where buyers suspected an offer was in the works. Sometimes the stock drops suddenly even below such a point, and then usually (it seems to me), the stock recovers to where it was before the offer. With PENN though, I believe the stock, near 12-mo. low, already is down to that level. So if the offer is indeed rescinded, I am hoping and expecting that the stock won't get killed. A retail investor coming in now is buying PENN for its business and prospects, and gets kind of a call option on the possibility of a fairly quick and good profit if the buyout comes to fruition.
I am considering adding to my position.

You could look at CNTY (Century Casinos). I like it because compared to others in the sector, it has a reasonable (lower) p/e and not as much d/e. One of its casinos is in Edmonton, which should do very well given the Alberta oil sands boom. I like that. But it may not be relevant since CNTY is diversified with several other casinos and casino operations.

OPMR is cash-in-search-of-a-business. They processed on-line gaming until that business was made illegal in the USA. I find the cash/sh number attractive given the stock price. And am hoping, of course, the management doesn't fritter away the monies, spend it egregiously on themselves, or make an unwise business investment with it.

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