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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


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To: Madharry who wrote (30202)3/1/2008 11:42:41 AM
From: RockyBalboa
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As a starter, look here: en.wikipedia.org

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30200)3/1/2008 1:53:46 PM
From: RockyBalboa
   of 70595
 
A more defensive way would be YPG. It suffered recently, also pointing to a slowdown in the business. So far it paid all dividends, amounting to a yield of 10%

finance.yahoo.com

biz.yahoo.com

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30172)3/1/2008 3:56:42 PM
From: Spekulatius
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SIL, since they appear to have a large derivative position in Silver and Zink, a short position in those metals to presumably offset pricing risk for the mining assets we can only assume that they will show a gigantic loss for the next quarter (silver has almost doubled during the last 2 month). Their mine is not producing much due the water problem (if i remember correctly) that sounds like it will take another 6 month to solve. I wonder if they are still liquid by the time the mine starts. Shareholder equity is already negative and the huge short position at some point will cause margin cause, IMO. And we do not even know if those derivative losses are tax deductable in Bolivia.

SIL will have to raise capital (which is very difficult right now) or sell some ownership in their mine (to Sumitomo, i presume) to stay afloat.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30184)3/1/2008 4:12:53 PM
From: Spekulatius
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Hutchison Whampoa is one of the most opaque company i am aware of. it is impossible to determine operating earnings because year after year, investment special dividends etc. gains bury operation results. this year it was the huge windfall from the sale of the Indian cellphone business and some special dividend that accounted for 2/3 of the cash flow. I do know that the Telecom arm generates huge losses and that the property/ports/hotels are nicely profitable. My best guess is that if all special gains are backed out HW is barely, if at all profitable. maybe that's what HW is, a conglomerate that wheels and deals with companies. They seem to have done OK doing this in the past and it may work in the future. But i would not be surprised if one day the whole thing comes tumbling down.

In the current market simplicity trumps complexity. When the going get's tough a lot of people will dump the stuff they do not understand first. HW seems on the wrong side of that equation, IMO.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (30206)3/1/2008 4:56:58 PM
From: Paul Senior
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HUWHY. If they can turn around their huge telecom investments in 3-G, the stock will do very well imo. They've not been successful though in past three years.

Yes, not possible to understand billionaire Li's balance sheet or his strategies. Or his often gutsy (erratic?) bets. HUWHY is a conglomerate with great assets and lousy earnings visibility.

Reminds me of Berkshire in that there are lots of core assets throwing off cash that the company uses to invest in presumably higher growth areas and industries.

My opinion is that people won't bail from the stock because its complicated financials are anathema in difficult times. My opinion is that people have generally always ignored Hutchinson because of Mr. Li and his complexity. That I suspect (and hope), has made the stock undervalued.

I've been in the stock since '03 with a small add in '04. It's not been a great performer. At current price and with the few shares I hold, I'm willing to add a little more now.

hutchison-whampoa.com

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30207)3/1/2008 7:57:51 PM
From: RockyBalboa
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HWL acted very nimble in 2000 when they sold their massive stake in German Deutsche Telekom practically at the top (still 6 times todays prices; it was DT who hopelessly overpaid Omnipoint/Voicestream which was co owned by HWL). Actually Orange / Mannesmann / Vodafone was not much different...

Earlier they founded Orange, and they also invested in European 3G like "3".

Hutchinson has actually 5 pillars:

drei.at

drei.at

from "3" homepage, HWL founded it in 2001

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30194)3/1/2008 11:07:00 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
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BDCs is yet another bunch of companies where you either have to trust the management or you have to diversify like heck. Paul diversifies and what can I say against it. I try to get into "trustworthy" companies, but unlike banks and insurers where you can follow Buffett, here it's my own call and I am not sure it is very good one. :)

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30200)3/1/2008 11:17:31 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
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With SPF behind me, I am back into "don't buy leveraged companies" camp. The interesting thing is that so far almost no companies went BK in this credit crunch atmosphere. When you remember that KMart managed to BK in the middle of pretty OK economic picture, it becomes rather weird that we don't see that many bankruptcies yet...

It's your guess whether it's time to buy levered ones because of that, or they just gonna keel over in the next year or so. ;)

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To: richardred who wrote (30121)3/2/2008 12:03:17 AM
From: richardred
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Not trying to be egocentric on the Value investing thread. In these uncertain market conditions anything can happen. Its very easy to be humbled. I've done no buying in AIT and still continue to watch. I'll concede it's not a good value currently. What I did notice is strength of the stock during market rebounds. Insiders have been sellers usually not a favorable sign. Along with my previously brief mentions. What still continues to attract me is the markets they serve might hold up well in this slow down.

I have been watching BMS for awhile. Insiders have been buyers of late. I'm getting close to putting an order in.

QEPC is a stock I currently own and think it is a value based on forward earnings and improving conditions. Not very liquid though. I'd be interested in any opinions on it. I'm considering adding to it.
yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com

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To: gcrispin who wrote (28175)3/2/2008 1:34:47 AM
From: Madharry
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Racetrack operator Magna Entertainment, the parent company of Laurel Park and Pimlico, announced yesterday it had more than tripled its fourth-quarter loss to just less than $43 million, and reported in its financial statement that its "ability to continue as a going concern is in substantial doubt "

The Ontario-based company, one of the major racetrack operators in the country, suffered losses of more than $113.7 million in 2007 despite implementing a debt-reduction plan last September that called for the sale of non-core racetracks and other real estate holdings.

Magna, which also lost $288.3 million between 2004 and 2006, is carrying long-term debt of $879.9 million with $209.4 million of that debt due this year.

The company's financial struggle raises questions about Magna's position when Maryland voters face a slot-machine referendum this November that would provide a huge infusion of income into the state's racing industry. Maryland racing has been battered in recent years as tracks in Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia began realizing revenue from slot machines. None of those tracks is owned by Magna.

Recent analyst reports to the Pennsylvania Gaming Congress found that slot-machine revenue in Pennsylvania last year reached $1.08 billion, according to a story in the Thoroughbred Times.

Maryland Racing Commission Chairman John Franzone has called on Magna to detail its finances at the commission's upcoming meeting March 18.

"It's almost inconceivable how [Magna] can lose that much money," Franzone said. "Are you making mistakes at the window and paying people incorrectly?"

Franzone suggested it would be wise for Magna to concentrate fully on helping pass the slots referendum in Maryland.

"If you get the slots and run them properly -- this ship is the Titanic now and it will change it into the" Queen Elizabeth II, Franzone said. "That would reverse their fortunes dramatically and allow them to gain profitability."

Magna's stock fell 9 cents yesterday, with a closing value of 79 cents per share. On Feb. 14, NASDAQ warned the company its stock would be delisted if the share value didn't rise above $1 by this summer.

"No one can be happy with our financial performance during the fourth quarter of '07 or the year as a whole," said Magna Chairman Frank Stronach during a conference call with investors.

"It's like 'Groundhog Day,' " said Tim Rice, president of Rice Voelker, an investment firm in Louisiana. "Every quarter, the results are disappointing. Every quarter, [Magna says,] 'We're going to sell assets and reduce debt,' and nothing ever happens."

-- John Scheinman

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