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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


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To: Spekulatius who wrote (30028)2/29/2008 11:20:32 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70893
 
Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) now at new 12-mo. low. I'm adding a little to my position here.

finance.yahoo.com

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From: Paul Senior2/29/2008 3:11:42 PM
   of 70893
 
I am building a position in insurer [t]UTR[/t].

Price about at stated b.v. B.v. generally rising (one bad year in past ten). P/e generally higher than current. A little insider buying. I note Fayez Sarofim has been a buyer at higher prices. (I like him/his company for their ltb&h approach with large/profitable companies.) About a 5% div. yield.

finance.yahoo.com

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (29343)2/29/2008 4:27:33 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70893
 
Adding to positions in financial stocks today. One is Chinese-American bank EWBC at current price. Upped my exploratory position a little.

finance.yahoo.com

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (27724)2/29/2008 6:20:09 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70893
 
Relooked at bdc PNNT and decided to return and establish a position. (Buying yesterday and today)

Makes loans and has had to write down their values. Maybe not enough of a write down yet. Who knows? Or they've not experienced defaults that might occur. Company claims it's diversified:

easyir.com

The stock in $9+ range with nav at $12 discounts a lot of problems. Company founder is buying, albeit relatively small amounts. Not much public history with this company. Dividend yield looks to be over 9% (which is okay, but not great when compared to some other bdc's).

finance.yahoo.com

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30194)2/29/2008 8:28:38 PM
From: Spekulatius
   of 70893
 
Today whole lot of stocks did hit my buy limits. Today was a good day to buy stocks but not to own them <g>.

SNY - cheap pharma with a PE <9
BP- per Pauls recommandation, cheap major oil
FCH (yesterday), REIT with a 11%+ yield, I bought this one instead of AHT which I sold. I Beleive that FCH has a better balance sheet
Exchanged some LM for AMG (asset manager), to harvest tax losses and diversify
GEHL (rebuy), discussed here before
WF, Korean bank with very limited subprime exposure, very cheap
BBY (rebuy)
TRAD, online broker for larger accounts, cheap and a buyout candidate?
EP - (starter position) Pipeline & NG company. Enron clone on the mend. I am a bif NG bull and wanted more exposure. EP is not that cheap and has quite a bit of debt but I believe they have very nice assets that are going to appreciate in value. In some circumstances, leverage can be good and I believe EP is such a case.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30194)2/29/2008 8:31:43 PM
From: Debt Free
   of 70893
 
I am trying to find out if there is an ETF that will profit when treasury rates go up. I have found RYJUX - Inverse Government Long Bond Strategy so far but have had little luck else where. I think that it is only a matter of time before the 10 year Treasury rates start to go up and reflect the current environment. I would like to find one that is leveraged if possible

TIA

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To: Debt Free who wrote (30196)3/1/2008 8:03:05 AM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 70893
 
Not quite what you are looking for, but I've owned in the past, and am currently looking at some floating rate closed ends again. FRA, FRB are the ones I've owned before, and I believe FRA was the one Bill Gross pounded the table on 1-2 years ago.
I also own a very small amount of VVR in an income oriented account.
There are a lot of these funds out there, they have very nice yields, and generally trade at a discount to NAV. Prices typically well off the highs. And, typically, the interest paid resets with the environment at the time, with some lag.
If this might be something of interest, you can perform DD on www.etfconnect.com

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To: Debt Free who wrote (30196)3/1/2008 10:39:13 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70893
 
I've had Pimco's FRA and FRB upon Bill Gross's recommendations in Barron's. Lost money on both.

Holding now a decent-size position in similar PFN. Losing money on this one as well.

The penalty I guess for me for chasing yields/seeking safety/making wrong decisions.

-----------
These closed-end funds invest in floating-rate debt instruments.
The funds are diversified in their debt holdings, and the debt resets quickly. The idea is that a fund holder doesn't take on much default risk with the underlying securities. When general rates rise, the interest on the cef's debt holdings increase, and eventually the dividend paid to stockholders should too. That's how it works as I understand it. (And of course when interest rates come down, it goes the other way.)

Like many cef's, they use some leverage. That's bit them a bit with the recent failed auction of their Auction-Rate Preferred Shares (not significantly or substantially, Pimco(Alllianz Global) says).

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To: Debt Free who wrote (30196)3/1/2008 10:56:25 AM
From: RockyBalboa
   of 70893
 
Value Investing: I put some fun money into a famous company - Beate Uhse (DE:USE). Stock heavily discounted trading at E1.30 to 1.35. The company might be in a crisis but its stuff will always be useful for a whole lot of folks. Currently a secondary with rights is placed which depresses the stock price (the price for the secondary is 1.10). Once the placement is finished the company is in much better shape. I think it could be worth more.

de.finance.yahoo.com

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From: Paul Senior3/1/2008 11:15:12 AM
   of 70893
 
Cover story in latest Barron's highlights several stocks recently discussed here: BONT, IAR, GTN, FCH. Barron's saying they might be buys now based on their high leverage (high d/e, low stock price) - if they can survive in this economy.

Some snippets:

FCH: "Despite the company's good financial results, FelCor stock is depressed because of concerns about the impact of a weaker economy on the lodging business. FelCor, however, should benefit this year from extensive renovations of its hotels in 2007...One reason that Hawks of Brigade Capital is bullish on FelCor is that growth in the supply of hotels is very limited."

IAR: "Any stock trading with a P/E ratio of two and a dividend yield of 25% is worth a closer look. Verizon Communications spun off its yellow-pages business as Idearc...Verizon put $9 billion of debt on Idearc, effectively creating a public LBO. That debt is proving a millstone amid a sudden weakening in phone-directory industry trends. The company's CEO resigned for health reasons last week, just a week into the job. Idearc's shares, which hit $38 last spring, now fetch under $5, valuing the company at less than $1 billion. At issue is whether recent troubles merely reflect a weak economy or a permanent shift by advertisers away from print directories."

GTN: "Gray is highly leveraged with a market cap of $300 million, against debt of $900 million. 'Our stock is extremely undervalued,' says Gray President Bob Prather, who lately bought 11,500 shares in the open market. 'Wall Street is down on Old Media and we've been dragged down by newspapers and radio. TV has some issues, but they're nothing like those industries.' ...If TV can hold its own in the face of the Internet advertising threat, Gray should do well.

-----
I have been considering following Spekulatius and switching into FCH from AHT. I have been adding to GTN as stock has dropped. With IAR...ouch! I started to buy at $9.27/sh. and have added in $8, $7, $6 range, and yesterday a litte more under $4.

The Barron's article also says this: "We've shown a sampling of levered equities but there are many more out there. Those with market values of more than $5 billion are scarce. Some larger outfits include Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ), Virgin Media (VMED), Rite Aid (RAD), Dean Foods (DF) and Level 3 Communications (LVLT)"

I've sold some RAD as it's moved up from under $2/sh; I've recently looked at DF and decided to pass on that one. I will likely take a few shares of Hertz. I've bought Dollar-Thrifty recently, and given my propensity to buy a package of stocks within a downtrodden sector, I will likely take on a few shares of Hertz too. I like Hertz for its dominance in the sector and for its profitable (I believe) equipment rental business.

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