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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


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To: Spekulatius who wrote (28633)2/28/2008 2:30:34 AM
From: Spekulatius
   of 71230
 
HTWC.OB - further improvement in credit quality. 9c earnings/share if you count the MHC shares that are not issued yet or 16c if you only count the floated shares.

A dinky bank that should probably never done an IPO but nicely profitable and trading at about 55% tangible book. C'mon!

biz.yahoo.com

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (30179)2/28/2008 9:23:11 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 71230
 
Hotel stocks. My understanding is they are lagging indicators: business falls off notably after their locales enter recession. If so, we may not have seen the worst of their stock drops.

I have FCH on my watch list. I believe in last economic downturn, they eliminated their dividend. Lot of money made if someone (not me) bought at lows of cycle and held through reinstatement of divs and the stock's rise.

Many discussions of LHO here--I've held at least a stub position from 1999. I'm holding [t]WYN[/t] since its spin out from Cendant. I like French-based Accor, and have held shares since 2006. I also have Strategic Hotels [t]BEE[/t] for their upscale properties. (I see they are partnering in a business venture with SHO):

finance.yahoo.com

I have IHR and sold about half yesterday with the pop in its stock price.
I have a decent position in AHT: dividend chasing here. Very dangerous.

finance.yahoo.com

biz.yahoo.com

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (30179)2/28/2008 10:37:46 AM
From: Grommit
   of 71230
 
SHO also has a lower P/FFO ratio.
For 2008 FFO, SHO = 5.4 and HPT = 7.5.
I'll join you in SHO.

finance.yahoo.com

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From: Paul Senior2/28/2008 10:56:58 AM
   of 71230
 
I am getting more fills.

Upped my small Mirant [t]MIR[/t] position a little. Aggressive sounding management with cash.

Upped my few exploratory PMC Commercial Trust [t]PCC[/t] shares a bit. The dividend yield.

Upped my shares of Hutchison Whampoa [t]HUWHY[/t]. The billionaire-controlled conglomerate. I like it for its many port facilities and real estate operations.

Am back into [t]LINTA[/t] now. Controlling shareholder of DirectTV. Still holding shares in Malone's LBTYA and LCAPA.

Added a little to my losing position in Korean American bank [t]HAFC[/t]. Below stated b.v., some small insider purchases.

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To: Madharry who wrote (30176)2/28/2008 12:27:49 PM
From: Area51
   of 71230
 
Thanks for the background on SIL. I have no doubt that if they are given a fair shake they will do quite well. OTOH it wouldn't shock me if the Bolivian government gets greedy and decides to nationalize the mining industry there. Could happen in Mexico also, but much less likely IMO.

Best Regards,
A51

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30173)2/28/2008 2:32:09 PM
From: Art Baeckel
   of 71230
 
Paul, nice bounce finally for AAPL. 130ish. Up 7.5+

Good Luck!

ART

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (30181)2/28/2008 5:32:29 PM
From: MCsweet
   of 71230
 
Spekulatius,

We may have to be in this one for the long haul, particularly given the difficulty people have understanding thrift accounting.

A divvy or buyback wouldn't hurt. Make we could give management a call.

In this environment, being in a sleepy stock is not the worst thing in the world, though.

Thanks,
MC

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30170)2/28/2008 6:35:37 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 71230
 
TRT: do you know what they make and do you see any future recovery or growth? I am concerned that they spend 3 times their income on stock compensation at the time when their income and sales are already dropping. So instead of reporting better earnings, the company decides to spit onto their shareholders and instead payoff themselves. Plus a dividend??? Sorry, but I will pass.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (30188)2/28/2008 7:05:23 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 71230
 
TRT. They've been profitable in 7 of past 9 years, so I assume their electronics testing service and equipment for that niche can still be a decent business.

But yes, I have noticed it doesn't seem to be such a great bet. While there's the cash cushion, the stock has traded below current p/sales and below current p/bk before -- several times. Stock imo, could easily fall another 20-30% and still not be near past lows by those measures.

I'll try to hold this one though for a while. Possibly because I've had decent results with it before. I'm in it for a few shares as I say, so my portfolio will still be okay if the stock collapses.

Others perhaps should do as you've concluded and done, and just pass.

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From: Paul Senior2/28/2008 8:18:02 PM
   of 71230
 
Buying Dollar Thrifty today. Not going to be a good year for DTG:

"Dollar Thrifty Sees 1Q Loss"

biz.yahoo.com

With p/bk of .57 and p/sales .20, those are low numbers not seen on average in any of the past ten years. And in each of those ten years DTG has been profitable. As management expects it to be in 2008.

Yes, high d/e. Apparently that's in the nature of the business as CAR(Avis), others also show high d/e numbers.

I'll establish position now, and look for a double within four years.

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