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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


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To: Grommit who wrote (27685)2/15/2008 3:26:18 PM
From: Keith J
   of 70587
 
Grommit,

Still holding your Quadra? I sold a little off, but still holding most yet.

KJ

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (30012)2/15/2008 3:39:43 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70587
 
Hello. I am back, and with this volatile market and with slowdowns/recession likely, I have decided to go 100% to cash.


-g-. Well, not quite. -g-

I am buying and buying. Have got, and am getting now, lots of small fills everywhere.

------------
aside. England very expensive to me. (I was in Leeds/Manchester/Yorkshire areas (North England)). Gas looks like about equivalent to $8+ per US gallon, a good English (cask-aged) beer about $6 per pint. Easier nowadays to find good restaurants and good fast food places, but prices for everything are very high. Or seem to be with the dollar/pound exchange rate.
More diversity now than I remember: Lots of Polish people now --- young people - educated, English-speaking, hard-working.
Many Muslims too of course. I'm told the most common name in England for boys is now Mohammed.
I only almost got clipped by cars a couple of times this trip. (Pedestrians not having the right-of-way, and me forgetting to look in the "right" direction when crossing streets)

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30056)2/16/2008 1:21:24 AM
From: Spekulatius
   of 70587
 
Paul, welcome back.
i hope you had a good time in England. Any investment opportunities spotted there, the British stock market seems pretty depressed, right now. I have been a large buyer in Rolls-Ryce after the latest downpour.
overall, I have been doing more selling than buying. LMC is gone due to those absurd accounting antics and the implicit earnings warning (or should I say loss preannouncement).

I clipped back my holding in NG/OIL service companies (GW, BJS, OIS) which have performed quite well. i am still holding some BHI and CPX in this field.

I am avoiding US and English bank right now but still hold my thrift conversions HTWC and DNBK. i see a lot more pain and writoffs in this sector to come.

I have actually trouble to deploy my capital at this point. Most of the industrials don't seem to get much cheaper here.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (30057)2/16/2008 8:56:05 AM
From: Debt Free
   of 70587
 
Spekulatius - here is a place you can look to deploy some capital

I have actually trouble to deploy my capital at this point. Most of the industrials don't seem to get much cheaper here.

Boston Scientific (BSX)

They have upped their earnings for the year and the stock has been acting well lately (especially compared to the rest of the market).

Yearly view



6 month view



There have been upgrades

Disclosure - I currently own BSX and will add more once it breaks up past $13.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (30057)2/16/2008 11:07:19 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70587
 
Spekulatius, I've got a very good possibility for you (given that you are a person who can hold on to good stocks for a decent period of time, e.g. NSRGY). It's a European (continental), not British though.
=====================================
For British, BP has come down to where I started my exploratory position, and I'll likely be adding more. In past, a poorly-run company. Now, with new guy, maybe some changes. A p/e typical of the integrated oils (8-11 maybe). With this you get an okay dividend, and BP's expertise (leadership?) in lng. I'm also holding BP Prudhoue Bay in a retirement account. It's a royalty trust, which means for me, if it were in a regular account, I'd have to file K-1 tax forms, which I don't want to be involved with. In a retirement account, I don't have a problem, UNLESS I get income from this and others that totals over $1000/yr. So my BPT position is and will remain, small.
I have a few shares of UUPLY, primarily a regulated water utility in north England. It also has a non-regulated business that "provides connections and metering services to other businesses, and operates utility concessions in Bulgaria, Estonia, Poland, the Philippines and Australia."

finance.yahoo.com

unitedutilities.com

I have BCS on my watch list. Not sure what I will do. I like the relatively low stock price and high div. yield ---if it doesn't get cut, and Barclay's size. Their involvement or not with subprime, etc. is worrisome though.
========================================
The European stock I'm liking now is Pargesa.

Several professional value investors(e.g. Jean-Marie Eveillard), and I have been buying Pargesa, PRGAF. It is a European company that takes large stakes in other big European companies and tries to influence their management.
pargesa.ch

Note the substantial companies in its portfolio: Total, Lafarge, Pernod, Suez:

pargesa.ch

PRGAF always seems to sell below the assets of their holdings. The positive is the asset/diversification aspect for the margin-of-safety with that. A negative is the gap to nav never seems to close enough, and can be very wide:

pargesa.ch

I contrast this stock with Dale Baker's 50% Gains thread pick of WNDLF. While WNDLF takes equity positions in industrial companies like Saint-Gobain (cf. PRGAF's Lafarge), WNDLF emphasizes its entrepreneurial bent - taking 100% of smaller companies (later selling them), and trying to influence larger companies by being their biggest shareholder. I believe WNDLF and PRGAF are each controlled by a wealthy familiy - in each case, it's their vehicle for investing their wealth.

There's also Dale Baker pick of 3i Group. It's British, and specializes in private equity. I don't follow it: I can't understand its prospects, businesses, financials, and I'm not set up to buy stocks directly on the London exchange.
Sorry I didn't buy WNDLF when first mentioned by Dale Baker years back; I have had an order in recently, although stock has not dropped to my price. WNDLF has been the better stock performer - almost tripling over the past four years vs. PRGAF not even doubling.
Perhaps PRGAF is a little more conservative. I like their holdings in large companies related to oil/gas, water, cement/construction, wines/liquors --- almost a concentrated mini-fund selling at below net assets. It's a stock that might be one that could be bought and put away for five years with some expectation that it'll do okay. That's my intent and expectation anyway.

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To: voodooist who wrote (27168)2/16/2008 11:30:35 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70587
 
Voodooist. ADPT. The stock continues its decline. I have now added a few more shares to my small position.

Steel Partners still seems to be in. Large cash/cash equivalents per share may provide a margin-of-safety- I hope.

finance.yahoo.com

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (30024)2/16/2008 11:37:04 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70587
 
Jurgis Bekepuris. ASFI. Stock continues its decline. I added more shares yesterday, and will add more if stock continues to fall on no adverse news.

I see one unprofitable year--1998. Book value has increased every year. Current price/bv of 1.0 is exceptionally low relative to past nine years.

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From: Paul Senior2/16/2008 12:17:14 PM
   of 70587
 
GTN. Looks like I'm the only one around here posting on (or following?) Grey Television. I've upped my position this week as stock continues to fall.

Same play as last go round. As stock has again dropped, I am again looking for reversion-to-mean.

Remaining the same:

Persistent insider buying has continued: There seems to be no stopping the Robinsons (Harriet and J Mack):

finance.yahoo.com

That is some bunch of "major holders" too:

finance.yahoo.com

I don't recall Keely (Small Cap Value) being in, but now Yahoo shows them as a top mutual fund holder.

Acorn is in. EQ Advisors (Marty Whitman) is in. Value player Deprince, Race Zollo is in. Gabelli is in. (again: He made a career, a reputation, and a fortune from analyzing these media companies. His surrogate who likely bought this stock for Gabelli funds might be competent.)

1.9% div. yield while holding the stock in an election year.
--------------------
Stock keeps dropping on no adverse news, I'll want to accumulate to a full position.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (28687)2/16/2008 12:34:50 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70587
 
EKS: LPNT. I see the stock dropped on a poor earnings report.

Somehow these hospitals have got to get better control over bad debt expense. Somehow, they will. (I hope.) The company has a positive, in that it's monopoly-like ("In almost every case, each of the 49 LifePoint hospitals located throughout the United States serves as the only acute-care facility in a community."), which is also its weakness. What can they do as the only "acute-care" provider, toss out emergency room patients because they don't have health insurance or money or credit cards?

So, profit margins and roe continue to slip year over year.

But at a forward p/e under 10, a p/bk of about .88, a psr of .52, the thing's an obvious buy to me. But of course, I believed same when stock was at higher price. -g-

Anyway I added to my position a little yesterday.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (29441)2/16/2008 12:56:27 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 70587
 
NE. Oops. Noble Drilling has fallen from January. Some earnings downgrades, maybe concern the drilling cycle has turned down.

Looking here at a stock with a yearly net profit margin in past decade never less than 13%, a falling d/e ratio (now at .18), and a Yahoo showing 12/'09 est. p/e on current price of 6.7x. That's low, although of course, such an earnings estimate two years out is just a guess.

I continue to hold shares of several in the sector: DO, NBR, RIG.

I added a few shares of NE on Friday to my now losing position.

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