| To: E_K_S who wrote (29335) | 12/19/2007 8:07:21 PM | | From: Wallace Rivers | | | | Thanks for the heads up on AMAT, traded it a couple times in '06. Looking at its price now, even at its lows, I left some money on the table.
It's a best in breed large cap at/near its lows, so it's back on my watch list. |
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| From: Junglekings | 12/19/2007 9:26:05 PM | | | | | | HAST still cheap at 3X operating cash flow and 100% TTM EPS growth (thank you XBOX 360)
TBAC cigar butt (NET NET)with restructuring they should be earning money gain very soon...
NWLIA -- very cheap
NAHC -- I am buying here
ODP
SMRT
RSC
BRK-A
AHT
CNO
DDS
CNQ
ALL cheap... discolsure I own many names above.... |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (29335) | 12/19/2007 11:18:09 PM | | From: Spekulatius | | | | I like AMAT but it's too early to buy. I consider it very likely that slowing economy will take it's toll on semi CAPEX which is where AMAT's bread and butter business is.
AMAT has sone a formidable job in expanding their business during the last 4 years. they now have a strong foothold in LCD manufacturing and now also in equipment for Solar cell. However I think that as their mainstay business is coming under pressure, the stock will do so as well. I think AMAT can be bought below 15$ during the next 12 month. |
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| To: Spekulatius who wrote (29339) | 12/19/2007 11:27:55 PM | | From: Spekulatius | | | | PLA, RICOY, SWCEY. PLA was a very controversial value pick but i have 2 other ones that have not been brought up in this board and may please other value investors as well.
RICOY.OB (Ricoh). Fairly well managed (IMO) Japanese office automation company. PE around 12. P/B 1.4. They have a good growth record and i think that management is fairly shareholder value oriented 9at least for a Japanese company
tse.or.jp
(Type in Ricoh in the company Name field)
SWCEY, SwissRe. Large swiss insurance company. Around 30B CHF market cap and they recently had to write off 1B CHF due to credit guaranty losses. Credit Guarantee is not a substantial business line for them so this was a nasty surprise. Management claims there is no other exposure. Stock trades around 70 CHF. Book is at 82CHF and earnings are estimated 11 CHF this year. Dividend yield 4%. This is a cheap financial stock with a hopefully very limited exposure to the mortgage mess.
I have starter positions in both, purchased today. |
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| To: Spekulatius who wrote (29339) | 12/20/2007 1:09:54 AM | | From: E_K_S | | | | Hi Spekulatius - My strategy for AMAT is to slowly build my position over the next 6 months and I wanted to start a position before year end to take advantage of any tax loss selling.
With the run up in a lot of these solar development companies, there is rapid speculation and it is difficult to pick a winner especially at a value price. This is a 3-5 year play so I wanted to make sure I had at least some seed money planted in this emerging sector.
As I stated in my earlier post AMAT seemed like a good value oriented play that allowed some long term participation in this sector, specifically the equipment manufacturing.
I also own Corning Inc. (GLW) which is a play in Polycrystalline Silicon (polysilicon) a major material component in photovoltaic solar cells. They own a 32% interest in Hemlock Semiconductor which is a major manufacturer of polysilicon. Management recently approved a $1 billion expansion in May that will double the site's silicon output to 36,000 metric tons by 2010.
dowcorning.com
Currently at Hemlock Semiconductor about 60 percent of the company's silicon goes into the electronics market and 40 percent is sold to the solar panel market. The electronics market continues to grow at about 10 percent annually, but the solar panel market is growing between 35 to 40 percent per year.
Spot prices for polysilicon are approaching $400 per kilogram. Hemlock will be increasing their production in early 2008 by about 4,500 metric tons (30% increase to 16,000 metric tons) and by 2010 they should be able to manufacture 32,000 metric tons. According to management, their 2008 production is already pre-sold.
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It looks like the solar business is beginning to take traction and by 2010 should be in a new long term growth market especially if oil stays above $100. Both AMAT and GLW seem like good value investments that should participate in the potential long term growth of this emerging sector.
EKS |
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| To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (29295) | 12/20/2007 9:59:58 AM | | From: Paul Senior | | | | Wallace Rivers. Okay, I'll to build on this idea of small regional banks.
I'm going go now with the ethnic-related banks - Chinese/Korean. I'll assume there's lots of commercial loans with them, and to the extent that they were making home equity loans, if they were made to recent immigrants, those immigrants have a strong culture of wanting homes, and of being responsible and making strong efforts in paying on their debts. (As perhaps might also be true for other/all immigrants to USA.)
Taking very small exploratory positions in HAFC and EWBC.
finance.yahoo.com |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (29341) | 12/20/2007 10:06:53 AM | | From: Paul Senior | | | | | I'll follow you into AMAT, EKS. Looks cheap enough on a relative p/sales basis (and on forward p/e as of now) for a small buy. I'll start with a few shares and plan to add more if/as stock drops further. |
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| To: gcrispin who wrote (28781) | 12/20/2007 10:07:56 AM | | From: Spekulatius | | | | I sort of wonder what happens if the mortgage insurer get downgraded from AAA to AA or less. Nobody (except the ratings agencies )believes that MBIA and peers are AAA any more despite the capital infusions.
If MBIA and peers get downgrades there is going to be an enormous amount of bonds that need to be regraded on a standalone (just based on the value of their underlying assets) basis. Since the amount of bonds is so large it could take weeks and month for the ratings agencies to get through the mess.
So the holders of such bonds won't know what the real rating is going to be like. I think that is a scenario where I can see a disaster in the bond market coming with everybody running to the exits before the other guy does. While some bonds may be find on a standalone base, you as a holder won't know for a long time.
This maybe the reason why the credit agency don't downgrade - they just are not able to handle to work (besides the CDO mess where there are in knee deep also).
from Dr Seuss' " Cat in the hat":
"This mess is so big And so Deep and so tall,
we cannot pick it up. There is no way at all!"
Where is the Cat in the hat when we need it? |
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