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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing

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From: Paul Senior12/20/2007 10:25:15 AM
   of 75852
Adding a little to my position in oil service co. DVR.

Adding to these stocks as they come down and forward p/e remains low. (Very dangerous way to invest: A couple of analyst revision down of earnings can often really jack up consensus p/e estimates.)

Fwiw, DVR mentioned here favorably by analyst group:

Message 24132593

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To: epicure who wrote (29056)12/20/2007 11:13:51 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 75852
Not good times for Trident Microsystems: CFO resigns. Earlier there've been analyst downgrades apparently because TRID's chips for LCD tv's are high-end, and consumers are finding low-end sets a better price/value proposition compared to producers' expensive/feature-rich sets.

No matter (to me, -g-). With minimal ltd and $200M in cash/cash equivalents ($3.4/sh.), a stated b.v. of $3.7/sh. (i.e. company does not have capital tied up in manufacturing assets), and a stock price now of $5.54/sh., I'm a buyer of TRID today. To me, it seems worth being in and waiting to see if co. can use talent and money for new successful projects. That they have done in past. Upside is a double or triple or more again. Downside is time-value-of-money (i.e. dead money for a while) or maybe, I'll guess, a couple bucks per share if stock drops even closer to cash value.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (29347)12/20/2007 11:41:35 AM
From: epicure
   of 75852
I agree. I'll look to add a bit on bad days.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (29325)12/20/2007 11:57:12 AM
From: - with a K
   of 75852
imho almost all retailers suck at service, especially around holidays. Except perhaps Saks Fifth Avenue.

I would add Nordstrom, JWN. I was in a store last week and it was buzzing with customers and sales people. On my way to the dept. I needed, I was asked 3 times if I could be helped, but maybe that was because I had a lost puppy look about me. :-)

I started a new position in JWN last week. I like the recent insider buying, the brand, the service, and the fundamentals.

Five year weekly chart:

From yesterday's WSJ:

But Barneys New York (a unit of Dubai World) and Nordstrom Inc., in particular, have kicked it up a notch by stationing concierges at several of their highest-profile branches to fulfill an array of customer requests that have nothing to with shopping -- for example, obtaining seats at the best restaurants or arranging admission to the hottest clubs. In return, the stores say they gain new customers and foster deeper loyalty in their old ones. It is another way for retailers to set themselves apart in a world where even the best stores often carry similar brands.

Seattle-based Nordstrom, for instance, has concierge desks in eight of its 101 stores. They are in stores in the largest cities and serve in part as a local chamber of commerce, providing information about the city's sites, best restaurants and other areas of interest. Among other tasks, they also deliver merchandise to people's homes or hotels at no charge.

Market Cap (intraday)5: 8.12B
Enterprise Value (20-Dec-07)3: 10.17B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 12.21
Forward P/E (fye 03-Feb-09) 1: 11.11
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.09
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.92
Price/Book (mrq): 6.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 1.14
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 6.796

Profit Margin (ttm): 8.22%
Operating Margin (ttm): 13.59%

Return on Assets (ttm): 14.90%
Return on Equity (ttm): 44.98%

Revenue (ttm): 8.94B
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 35.513
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 5.30%
Gross Profit (ttm): 3.21B
EBITDA (ttm): 1.50B
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 735.29M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 2.87
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): 22.10%

Total Cash (mrq): 107.91M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.465
Total Debt (mrq): 2.09B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 1.599
Current Ratio (mrq): 1.874
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 5.637

Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 175.32M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -495.52M


Company: JWN
Date: 12/20/2007
Next year's expected earnings: $3.15
EPS growth rate used for estimate: 9% (vs. 11.6% consensus)
Multiple Graham used for estimate: 8.5
Graham Fair Value: $58.77
Current Price: $35.00
$ difference: $23.77
Percent Growth to Fair Value: 67.90%

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (29152)12/20/2007 12:51:25 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 75852
I'll up my CIT position a little.

Barron's has a Tueday article headlined "The CIT Value Trap"

"GFI analysts David Kelly and Chris Parkinson advised clients in a Monday advisory that CIT shares look cheap as they trade near the 52-week low, but that things are not what they seem.

The two analysts pointed out that Wall Street has lowered earnings estimates and thus the ongoing risks are not accurately reflected, which suggests a "high risk of a value trap."

"We would need to see a material tightening in CIT CDS spreads before turning positive on CIT shares," Kelly and Parkinson said.

Many options traders believe there is a strong correlation between CDS spreads and options volatility. Implied volatility is driven by put buying, and put prices would increase on credit concerns."

These guys can buy the stock when their spreads tighten materially. I'm buying a little more now on low p/bk.

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To: - with a K who wrote (29349)12/20/2007 2:34:05 PM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 75852
Bought more falling knife TGT in that space today.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (28874)12/20/2007 3:38:38 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 75852
Upped my position in COF a little.

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To: gcrispin who wrote (29316)12/20/2007 4:09:40 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 75852
ROST: Fwiw, have held a stub position bought in 2004. Looking to add a little, I got a fill on a few shares yesterday.

ROE just is so high. Of course, p/bk is high too. So as regards roe, you're paying for it in a high stock price, if your a buyer. However, offsetting that, p/sales is relative low compared to past years.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (29350)12/20/2007 11:40:49 PM
From: Spekulatius
   of 75852
I sold my CIT recently as I simply lost confidence (probably at the worst possible time). Here is my reasoning:

CIT has pledged 7.2B$ in mortgages for 5.1B$ in cash. this is a non recourse deal which means that the worst case scenario is that CIT keeps the cash it has already but looses all economic will loose all mortgage assets. this of course would mean that CIT will have to write off another 2.1B$ in equity.

Besides that CIT still holds 2.5B$ in mortgage receivable. I suspect that those are lower quality than the ones mentioned in the pool above. I think we have quite a bit of additional writeoffs for those mortgage assets ahead of us. My best guess is 2B$. This would reduce CIT book value/share by roughly 10$/share. After that they would have an 78B$ balance sheet with only 4.5B$ in equity, which looks undercapitalized. So very likely they will turn around and find an rich Uncle in the far east who kicks back the lost 2B$ (a 30% dilution for current owners) just like UBS, ETFC, MS or C did to replace the lost capital and keep a decent rating.

Not a very enticing scenario and it will not be pretty for current equity holders but i think it's fairly reasonable based on what we see unfolding at UBS and MS recently.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (29350)12/21/2007 5:39:15 AM
From: Madharry
   of 75852
i wonder if you owned shares in finova way back. i just spent a few minutes reading the thread on that one and it was pretty scary. the company which was a large finance company started to spiral downward in 2000. the ceo / founder resigned at the stock price got cut in half following the bankruptcy of one of its large borrowers. at that time according to the thread there were still 17 buy recs on the stock. the stock kept tumbling as value players stepped in and bought and added as the stock dropped below book value, Insider purchases ensued, the stock kept dropping as they announced the hiring of investment bankers to pursue strategic alternatives. the stock kept dropping as buffet bought some distressed bonds. stock kept dropping as it was announced that luk was going to buy a piece of the company. Ultimately the company filed for bankruptcy. Im not saying this will happen to CIT, but it certainly makes me wonder whether anyone really knows whats going on sometimes.

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