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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing

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To: Grommit who wrote (29289)12/19/2007 4:22:10 PM
From: SI Bob
   of 74452
As did I (added more). It seems that with [t]ACAS[/t], like with [t]WPL[/t], I got on the right train but would've done well to wait for it to at least slow down for the station.

I felt the article did a great job of looking into ACAS but apparently it wasn't seen by a lot of people.

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From: E_K_S12/19/2007 4:28:37 PM
   of 74452
Started a small position in AMAT. Stock is selling near its 52 week low, has a forward PE of 12.5, pays a tiny dividend of 1.2% but has the potential to be a leader in the manufacturing of large Solar Cell panels.

AMAT tools up really big solar panels
Signet Solar breaks cover 15 May 2007

Applied Materials to Accelerate Its Solar Roadmap with Acquisition of Baccini - Nov 19, 2007
From the article:"...Combining Baccini’s products and technologies with Applied’s semiconductor interconnect processing expertise, manufacturing capabilities, and R&D resources will provide customers with world-class, automated production technology for fabricating advanced c-Si solar cells...."

AMAT's move into the solar business will have little impact on their business short term but it may add a few $100 million in contracts over the next 36 months. More importantly, once the market figures out that AMAT is the low cost manufacture, they should value this new business segment much higher.

Suresh Balaraman an analysts who covers AMAT has a strong "buy" rating on the stock and believes shares can appreciate over the next 12 months to $35 once Asia-based semiconductor foundries and memory chip makers begin buying new tools.

To me this allows a safe and "value oriented" play in the fast emerging solar business.


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To: SI Bob who wrote (29334)12/19/2007 4:52:20 PM
From: Grommit
   of 74452
ACAS. There is nothing peculiar about ACAS or the other BDCs. They are all in the same unloved boat.

So we have to have the courage to stick it out like Bury did with his sub prime bet.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (29335)12/19/2007 8:07:21 PM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 74452
Thanks for the heads up on AMAT, traded it a couple times in '06. Looking at its price now, even at its lows, I left some money on the table.
It's a best in breed large cap at/near its lows, so it's back on my watch list.

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From: Junglekings12/19/2007 9:26:05 PM
   of 74452
HAST still cheap at 3X operating cash flow and 100% TTM EPS growth (thank you XBOX 360)

TBAC cigar butt (NET NET)with restructuring they should be earning money gain very soon...

NWLIA -- very cheap

NAHC -- I am buying here









ALL cheap... discolsure I own many names above....

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To: E_K_S who wrote (29335)12/19/2007 11:18:09 PM
From: Spekulatius
   of 74452
I like AMAT but it's too early to buy. I consider it very likely that slowing economy will take it's toll on semi CAPEX which is where AMAT's bread and butter business is.

AMAT has sone a formidable job in expanding their business during the last 4 years. they now have a strong foothold in LCD manufacturing and now also in equipment for Solar cell. However I think that as their mainstay business is coming under pressure, the stock will do so as well. I think AMAT can be bought below 15$ during the next 12 month.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (29339)12/19/2007 11:27:55 PM
From: Spekulatius
   of 74452
PLA, RICOY, SWCEY. PLA was a very controversial value pick but i have 2 other ones that have not been brought up in this board and may please other value investors as well.

RICOY.OB (Ricoh). Fairly well managed (IMO) Japanese office automation company. PE around 12. P/B 1.4. They have a good growth record and i think that management is fairly shareholder value oriented 9at least for a Japanese company

(Type in Ricoh in the company Name field)

SWCEY, SwissRe. Large swiss insurance company. Around 30B CHF market cap and they recently had to write off 1B CHF due to credit guaranty losses. Credit Guarantee is not a substantial business line for them so this was a nasty surprise. Management claims there is no other exposure. Stock trades around 70 CHF. Book is at 82CHF and earnings are estimated 11 CHF this year. Dividend yield 4%. This is a cheap financial stock with a hopefully very limited exposure to the mortgage mess.

I have starter positions in both, purchased today.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (29339)12/20/2007 1:09:54 AM
From: E_K_S
   of 74452
Hi Spekulatius - My strategy for AMAT is to slowly build my position over the next 6 months and I wanted to start a position before year end to take advantage of any tax loss selling.

With the run up in a lot of these solar development companies, there is rapid speculation and it is difficult to pick a winner especially at a value price. This is a 3-5 year play so I wanted to make sure I had at least some seed money planted in this emerging sector.

As I stated in my earlier post AMAT seemed like a good value oriented play that allowed some long term participation in this sector, specifically the equipment manufacturing.

I also own Corning Inc. (GLW) which is a play in Polycrystalline Silicon (polysilicon) a major material component in photovoltaic solar cells. They own a 32% interest in Hemlock Semiconductor which is a major manufacturer of polysilicon. Management recently approved a $1 billion expansion in May that will double the site's silicon output to 36,000 metric tons by 2010.

Currently at Hemlock Semiconductor about 60 percent of the company's silicon goes into the electronics market and 40 percent is sold to the solar panel market. The electronics market continues to grow at about 10 percent annually, but the solar panel market is growing between 35 to 40 percent per year.

Spot prices for polysilicon are approaching $400 per kilogram. Hemlock will be increasing their production in early 2008 by about 4,500 metric tons (30% increase to 16,000 metric tons) and by 2010 they should be able to manufacture 32,000 metric tons. According to management, their 2008 production is already pre-sold.

It looks like the solar business is beginning to take traction and by 2010 should be in a new long term growth market especially if oil stays above $100. Both AMAT and GLW seem like good value investments that should participate in the potential long term growth of this emerging sector.


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To: Spekulatius who wrote (29340)12/20/2007 9:44:09 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 74452
I have added to EXPGY and established small position in ACAS.

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To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (29295)12/20/2007 9:59:58 AM
From: Paul Senior
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Wallace Rivers. Okay, I'll to build on this idea of small regional banks.

I'm going go now with the ethnic-related banks - Chinese/Korean. I'll assume there's lots of commercial loans with them, and to the extent that they were making home equity loans, if they were made to recent immigrants, those immigrants have a strong culture of wanting homes, and of being responsible and making strong efforts in paying on their debts. (As perhaps might also be true for other/all immigrants to USA.)

Taking very small exploratory positions in HAFC and EWBC.

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