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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing

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To: E_K_S who wrote (29341)12/20/2007 10:06:53 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 73738
I'll follow you into AMAT, EKS. Looks cheap enough on a relative p/sales basis (and on forward p/e as of now) for a small buy. I'll start with a few shares and plan to add more if/as stock drops further.

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To: gcrispin who wrote (28781)12/20/2007 10:07:56 AM
From: Spekulatius
   of 73738
I sort of wonder what happens if the mortgage insurer get downgraded from AAA to AA or less. Nobody (except the ratings agencies )believes that MBIA and peers are AAA any more despite the capital infusions.

If MBIA and peers get downgrades there is going to be an enormous amount of bonds that need to be regraded on a standalone (just based on the value of their underlying assets) basis. Since the amount of bonds is so large it could take weeks and month for the ratings agencies to get through the mess.

So the holders of such bonds won't know what the real rating is going to be like. I think that is a scenario where I can see a disaster in the bond market coming with everybody running to the exits before the other guy does. While some bonds may be find on a standalone base, you as a holder won't know for a long time.

This maybe the reason why the credit agency don't downgrade - they just are not able to handle to work (besides the CDO mess where there are in knee deep also).

from Dr Seuss' " Cat in the hat":

"This mess is so big And so Deep and so tall,
we cannot pick it up. There is no way at all!"

Where is the Cat in the hat when we need it?

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From: Paul Senior12/20/2007 10:25:15 AM
   of 73738
Adding a little to my position in oil service co. DVR.

Adding to these stocks as they come down and forward p/e remains low. (Very dangerous way to invest: A couple of analyst revision down of earnings can often really jack up consensus p/e estimates.)

Fwiw, DVR mentioned here favorably by analyst group:

Message 24132593

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To: epicure who wrote (29056)12/20/2007 11:13:51 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 73738
Not good times for Trident Microsystems: CFO resigns. Earlier there've been analyst downgrades apparently because TRID's chips for LCD tv's are high-end, and consumers are finding low-end sets a better price/value proposition compared to producers' expensive/feature-rich sets.

No matter (to me, -g-). With minimal ltd and $200M in cash/cash equivalents ($3.4/sh.), a stated b.v. of $3.7/sh. (i.e. company does not have capital tied up in manufacturing assets), and a stock price now of $5.54/sh., I'm a buyer of TRID today. To me, it seems worth being in and waiting to see if co. can use talent and money for new successful projects. That they have done in past. Upside is a double or triple or more again. Downside is time-value-of-money (i.e. dead money for a while) or maybe, I'll guess, a couple bucks per share if stock drops even closer to cash value.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (29347)12/20/2007 11:41:35 AM
From: epicure
   of 73738
I agree. I'll look to add a bit on bad days.

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (29325)12/20/2007 11:57:12 AM
From: - with a K
   of 73738
imho almost all retailers suck at service, especially around holidays. Except perhaps Saks Fifth Avenue.

I would add Nordstrom, JWN. I was in a store last week and it was buzzing with customers and sales people. On my way to the dept. I needed, I was asked 3 times if I could be helped, but maybe that was because I had a lost puppy look about me. :-)

I started a new position in JWN last week. I like the recent insider buying, the brand, the service, and the fundamentals.

Five year weekly chart:

From yesterday's WSJ:

But Barneys New York (a unit of Dubai World) and Nordstrom Inc., in particular, have kicked it up a notch by stationing concierges at several of their highest-profile branches to fulfill an array of customer requests that have nothing to with shopping -- for example, obtaining seats at the best restaurants or arranging admission to the hottest clubs. In return, the stores say they gain new customers and foster deeper loyalty in their old ones. It is another way for retailers to set themselves apart in a world where even the best stores often carry similar brands.

Seattle-based Nordstrom, for instance, has concierge desks in eight of its 101 stores. They are in stores in the largest cities and serve in part as a local chamber of commerce, providing information about the city's sites, best restaurants and other areas of interest. Among other tasks, they also deliver merchandise to people's homes or hotels at no charge.

Market Cap (intraday)5: 8.12B
Enterprise Value (20-Dec-07)3: 10.17B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 12.21
Forward P/E (fye 03-Feb-09) 1: 11.11
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.09
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.92
Price/Book (mrq): 6.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 1.14
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 6.796

Profit Margin (ttm): 8.22%
Operating Margin (ttm): 13.59%

Return on Assets (ttm): 14.90%
Return on Equity (ttm): 44.98%

Revenue (ttm): 8.94B
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 35.513
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 5.30%
Gross Profit (ttm): 3.21B
EBITDA (ttm): 1.50B
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 735.29M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 2.87
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): 22.10%

Total Cash (mrq): 107.91M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.465
Total Debt (mrq): 2.09B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 1.599
Current Ratio (mrq): 1.874
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 5.637

Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 175.32M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -495.52M


Company: JWN
Date: 12/20/2007
Next year's expected earnings: $3.15
EPS growth rate used for estimate: 9% (vs. 11.6% consensus)
Multiple Graham used for estimate: 8.5
Graham Fair Value: $58.77
Current Price: $35.00
$ difference: $23.77
Percent Growth to Fair Value: 67.90%

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (29152)12/20/2007 12:51:25 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 73738
I'll up my CIT position a little.

Barron's has a Tueday article headlined "The CIT Value Trap"

"GFI analysts David Kelly and Chris Parkinson advised clients in a Monday advisory that CIT shares look cheap as they trade near the 52-week low, but that things are not what they seem.

The two analysts pointed out that Wall Street has lowered earnings estimates and thus the ongoing risks are not accurately reflected, which suggests a "high risk of a value trap."

"We would need to see a material tightening in CIT CDS spreads before turning positive on CIT shares," Kelly and Parkinson said.

Many options traders believe there is a strong correlation between CDS spreads and options volatility. Implied volatility is driven by put buying, and put prices would increase on credit concerns."

These guys can buy the stock when their spreads tighten materially. I'm buying a little more now on low p/bk.

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To: - with a K who wrote (29349)12/20/2007 2:34:05 PM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 73738
Bought more falling knife TGT in that space today.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (28874)12/20/2007 3:38:38 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 73738
Upped my position in COF a little.

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To: gcrispin who wrote (29316)12/20/2007 4:09:40 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 73738
ROST: Fwiw, have held a stub position bought in 2004. Looking to add a little, I got a fill on a few shares yesterday.

ROE just is so high. Of course, p/bk is high too. So as regards roe, you're paying for it in a high stock price, if your a buyer. However, offsetting that, p/sales is relative low compared to past years.

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