SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


Previous 10 Next 10 
To: Paul Senior who wrote (29277)12/19/2007 4:15:40 PM
From: SI Bob
   of 71680
 
Further, maybe the new G37 Infinity is moving closer to knocking the 3 series cars down from top of the public perception of price/performance/value in this segment.

That's tough to do. As some of you may know, my main avocation is Performance Driving Instructor. I teach people how to hustle their car around a road course quickly and safely, making the kinds of reactions that steer you around a deer rather than skidding into it involuntary habits. In return, the car clubs let us instructors have our own sessions to flail on our poor cars.

I get exposed to a lot of cars on a regular basis when the weather's warm. Especially German cars since it's primarily the BMW, Audi, and Porsche clubs that hold these events. Though all makes are welcome.

That said, even as exposed to cars as I am, and in tune with what's what especially in the area of "performance" or "driver's" cars, I'm quite brain-washed when it comes to BMW's.

And with my intense car exposure, I can only assume that I'm about the least brain-washed person around.

But I can't imagine anything that can shake my perception that BMW's 3 series is the unassailable performance/quality champion in its price range. And I've instructed in G35's twice and found them absolutely wonderful cars.

Heck, I'm so convinced that Bimmers are expensive high-quality cars that it wasn't until after a friend mentioned it that I even considered that for what I'm paying for the new Subaru, I could've gotten a pretty hot Bimmer. Aside from the old 94 530i that I have as my main daily driver, my perception is that BMW's are expensive and worth every penny.

If that notion can't be shaken out of my head, I wouldn't bet money on it being shaken from the heads of others.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Grommit who wrote (29289)12/19/2007 4:22:10 PM
From: SI Bob
   of 71680
 
As did I (added more). It seems that with [t]ACAS[/t], like with [t]WPL[/t], I got on the right train but would've done well to wait for it to at least slow down for the station.

I felt the article did a great job of looking into ACAS but apparently it wasn't seen by a lot of people.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


From: E_K_S12/19/2007 4:28:37 PM
   of 71680
 
Started a small position in AMAT. Stock is selling near its 52 week low, has a forward PE of 12.5, pays a tiny dividend of 1.2% but has the potential to be a leader in the manufacturing of large Solar Cell panels.

AMAT tools up really big solar panels
Signet Solar breaks cover 15 May 2007
theinquirer.net

Applied Materials to Accelerate Its Solar Roadmap with Acquisition of Baccini - Nov 19, 2007
nanowerk.com
From the article:"...Combining Baccini’s products and technologies with Applied’s semiconductor interconnect processing expertise, manufacturing capabilities, and R&D resources will provide customers with world-class, automated production technology for fabricating advanced c-Si solar cells...."
=========================================================

AMAT's move into the solar business will have little impact on their business short term but it may add a few $100 million in contracts over the next 36 months. More importantly, once the market figures out that AMAT is the low cost manufacture, they should value this new business segment much higher.

Suresh Balaraman an analysts who covers AMAT has a strong "buy" rating on the stock and believes shares can appreciate over the next 12 months to $35 once Asia-based semiconductor foundries and memory chip makers begin buying new tools.

To me this allows a safe and "value oriented" play in the fast emerging solar business.

EKS

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)


To: SI Bob who wrote (29334)12/19/2007 4:52:20 PM
From: Grommit
   of 71680
 
ACAS. There is nothing peculiar about ACAS or the other BDCs. They are all in the same unloved boat.
finance.yahoo.com

So we have to have the courage to stick it out like Bury did with his sub prime bet.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: E_K_S who wrote (29335)12/19/2007 8:07:21 PM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 71680
 
Thanks for the heads up on AMAT, traded it a couple times in '06. Looking at its price now, even at its lows, I left some money on the table.
It's a best in breed large cap at/near its lows, so it's back on my watch list.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


From: Junglekings12/19/2007 9:26:05 PM
   of 71680
 
HAST still cheap at 3X operating cash flow and 100% TTM EPS growth (thank you XBOX 360)

TBAC cigar butt (NET NET)with restructuring they should be earning money gain very soon...

NWLIA -- very cheap

NAHC -- I am buying here

ODP

SMRT

RSC

BRK-A

AHT

CNO

DDS

CNQ

ALL cheap... discolsure I own many names above....

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)


To: E_K_S who wrote (29335)12/19/2007 11:18:09 PM
From: Spekulatius
   of 71680
 
I like AMAT but it's too early to buy. I consider it very likely that slowing economy will take it's toll on semi CAPEX which is where AMAT's bread and butter business is.

AMAT has sone a formidable job in expanding their business during the last 4 years. they now have a strong foothold in LCD manufacturing and now also in equipment for Solar cell. However I think that as their mainstay business is coming under pressure, the stock will do so as well. I think AMAT can be bought below 15$ during the next 12 month.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)


To: Spekulatius who wrote (29339)12/19/2007 11:27:55 PM
From: Spekulatius
   of 71680
 
PLA, RICOY, SWCEY. PLA was a very controversial value pick but i have 2 other ones that have not been brought up in this board and may please other value investors as well.

RICOY.OB (Ricoh). Fairly well managed (IMO) Japanese office automation company. PE around 12. P/B 1.4. They have a good growth record and i think that management is fairly shareholder value oriented 9at least for a Japanese company

tse.or.jp

(Type in Ricoh in the company Name field)

SWCEY, SwissRe. Large swiss insurance company. Around 30B CHF market cap and they recently had to write off 1B CHF due to credit guaranty losses. Credit Guarantee is not a substantial business line for them so this was a nasty surprise. Management claims there is no other exposure. Stock trades around 70 CHF. Book is at 82CHF and earnings are estimated 11 CHF this year. Dividend yield 4%. This is a cheap financial stock with a hopefully very limited exposure to the mortgage mess.

I have starter positions in both, purchased today.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Spekulatius who wrote (29339)12/20/2007 1:09:54 AM
From: E_K_S
   of 71680
 
Hi Spekulatius - My strategy for AMAT is to slowly build my position over the next 6 months and I wanted to start a position before year end to take advantage of any tax loss selling.

With the run up in a lot of these solar development companies, there is rapid speculation and it is difficult to pick a winner especially at a value price. This is a 3-5 year play so I wanted to make sure I had at least some seed money planted in this emerging sector.

As I stated in my earlier post AMAT seemed like a good value oriented play that allowed some long term participation in this sector, specifically the equipment manufacturing.

I also own Corning Inc. (GLW) which is a play in Polycrystalline Silicon (polysilicon) a major material component in photovoltaic solar cells. They own a 32% interest in Hemlock Semiconductor which is a major manufacturer of polysilicon. Management recently approved a $1 billion expansion in May that will double the site's silicon output to 36,000 metric tons by 2010.

dowcorning.com

Currently at Hemlock Semiconductor about 60 percent of the company's silicon goes into the electronics market and 40 percent is sold to the solar panel market. The electronics market continues to grow at about 10 percent annually, but the solar panel market is growing between 35 to 40 percent per year.

Spot prices for polysilicon are approaching $400 per kilogram. Hemlock will be increasing their production in early 2008 by about 4,500 metric tons (30% increase to 16,000 metric tons) and by 2010 they should be able to manufacture 32,000 metric tons. According to management, their 2008 production is already pre-sold.

========================================================
It looks like the solar business is beginning to take traction and by 2010 should be in a new long term growth market especially if oil stays above $100. Both AMAT and GLW seem like good value investments that should participate in the potential long term growth of this emerging sector.

EKS

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Spekulatius who wrote (29340)12/20/2007 9:44:09 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 71680
 
I have added to EXPGY and established small position in ACAS.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read
Previous 10 Next 10