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To: Patriarch who wrote (29290)12/18/2007 9:31:11 AM
From: gcrispin
   of 72178
 
Briefing.com's summary of IMOS press release concerning DRAM prices.

8:04AM Chipmos Technology lowers Q4 guidance to approx flat to slightly up, compared to 5 to 9% sequential growth (IMOS) 4.44 : Co announces rev for the month of November 2007 was $64.4 mln, a decrease of 2.3% from the month of October 2007 and an increase of 4.3% from the same period in 2006. The co also revised its guidance for the fourth quarter of 2007 to reflect the rapid decline in DRAM pricing and inventory oversupply in the channel. The co had expected Q4 revenue growth of 5% to 9% compared to the third quarter of 2007 revenue of $184.1 mln. The co now expects Q4 to be approxi flat to slightly up compared to the third quarter of 2007, with US GAAP gross margin on a consolidated basis for the fourth quarter of 2007 similar to the 24.2% achieved in the third quarter of 2007. The co continues to counter falling DRAM A.S.Ps with execution on cost controls and diligence in its capital expenditures. Capex for the full year 2007 is expected to be approx $190 mln compared to $487 mln for the full year 2006. The co remains cautious but expects market conditions will improve during the next few quarters with DRAM pricing improving first due to manufacturing constraints. Demand and pricing remain stable and continue to improve in the co's flash and driver IC segments.

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To: Asymmetric who wrote (29293)12/18/2007 10:26:18 AM
From: Asymmetric
   of 72178
 
Buying CWTR was a mistake.
Negative cash flow, falling profit margins,
higher operating costs with more stores,
falling same store sales. Negative sector
and individual outlook. Took a small loss
on this, this morning. Still looking around
for something to bottom fish.

- A.

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To: Asymmetric who wrote (29297)12/18/2007 10:57:24 AM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 72178
 
In retail, I've been bottom fishing with TGT.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (29294)12/18/2007 11:51:36 AM
From: E_K_S
   of 72178
 
RE: AYR & GLS

It appears that the dividend is not a qualified dividend for US investors.

investors.aircastle.com

From their Web site:"...Generally:Dividends received by a U.S. holder would generally be subject to tax in the year received and would not be eligible to be treated as "qualified dividend income". In addition, unless a U.S. holder makes a "QEF election" as defined in Section 1295 of the Internal Revenue Code, a U.S. holder will be subject to special rules with respect to (1) any "excess distributions" and (2) any gain realized on the sale or other disposition of the shares...."

=====================================================

Have you researched this and do you plan to make a QEF election?

Also, Do you have any concern that the dividend payout ratio for AYR is 125%?

I like your theme for the investment especially with the order backlog for Boeing and AirBus.

EKS

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To: E_K_S who wrote (29299)12/18/2007 12:31:19 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 72178
 
AYR. First time I've come across a Passive Foreign Investment Company (a "PFIC") for U.S. Federal income tax purposes. I'll have to check with my tax guy as to what I will do. If it's a mandatory bunch of paperwork and as complex as limited partnership rigmarole, I'm not going to like it. Might be worth it though for the potential and opportunity these stocks I hope provide.

I don't believe I'll care about whether the dividend is qualified or not. I'm likely to have to pay the amt, and so I'm not going to get the "benefit" of the low 15% tax rate.

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From: Paul Senior12/18/2007 1:02:45 PM
   of 72178
 
I'll try a few shares of Standex International Corp. (SXI)

Allegedly and apparently, management is milking the company:

biz.yahoo.com

To me, it doesn't seem like this company earns its cost of capital. ROE seems to be decreasing over time.

The positives are that the p/sales is very low compared to the past ten years, as is p/bk. (The stock in almost all past ten years trading at 1.5-2.0 x book, now is trading at book.) A couple of directors have made small direct buys recently. (Insignificant imo). I note that Third Ave Funds is the largest fund holder.

If this company can't wring some additional profits from its sales, I'm guessing the stock will continue to fall to where it's a cigar butt. (If it isn't already a cigar butt) Going the way it's going now, to assume the stock will once again trade as high as 1.5 bv, with lousy roe and questionable management, well that presumes that you can fool all of the people all of the time (well for the past 10 years, when the stock always on yearly average traded (1.2-2x bv)). Stock's at a seven year low now; maybe people are wising up.

I'll try a few shares on reversion-to-mean, but my heart isn't in it. About a 4.8% div. yield while waiting.


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To: Madharry who wrote (29269)12/18/2007 1:05:12 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 72178
 
In the latest (?) version of his book Greenblatt advocates against buying into merger arbitrage and I agree with him. Unless you are willing to hold the company that is being bought in case of deal dissolution or looking to hold acquiring company in case of equity deal, I don't see this as a good place to invest money.

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To: SI Bob who wrote (29272)12/18/2007 1:12:17 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 72178
 
OT (maybe): I used to consider American cars to be junk compared to imports. Recently I read in AAA magazine that they think that the quality differential of American cars to imports has narrowed. Do you see this to be the case? I.e. have American cars become better compared to imports recently?

OTOH, I think that the next car I want to buy is a hybrid and for that Toyota seem to be the frontrunner. Probably, Prius. Although I am value-investor-cheap, so I may just buy something 5-7 years used instead. ;)

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To: E_K_S who wrote (29299)12/18/2007 1:21:12 PM
From: rllee
   of 72178
 
RE: AYR, GLS - Would the tax complications be minimize if the stocks are bought within an IRA? Comments welcome.

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To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (29276)12/18/2007 1:38:01 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris
   of 72178
 
I don't have a special insight into the sector, but I would rather buy something related to old cars, like parts or re-paint company rather than new car companies. IMO, there is too much uncertainty in the new car sales. Unless you buy Toyota, which seems to be leader in the hybrids. I have not done the valuation DD on Toyota though. :)

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