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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


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From: Paul Senior12/17/2007 2:40:36 PM
   of 72241
 
I like limited partnerships because they usually are about assets that are different from what corporations have -- pipelines, royalty streams, and such. Some people believe that market-listed limited partnerships are uncorrelated to moves either in "regular" stocks or even to the prices of commodities with which some of the lp's are associated, e.g. oil or gas prices, prices of timber. I don't like individual lp's because of the inconvenience and trouble of having to complete and file USA K1 partnership agreements.

I asked on the Big Dog thread if anyone knew of a fund that specialized in limited partnerships (oil/gas related, where I wouldn't have to deal with K1 forms). This form is one of the most popular and active on SI with over 1000 members listed, and an active and often knowledgeable group of regulars. It's oil and gas related.
No one could identify such an lp fund for me. I have had very satisfactory results using the Big Dog thread as a contra indicator. That no one mentioned cef KYN, I take as a good positive - it being unknown, unwanted among any of the many people interested in oil/gas related businesses/stocks.

I'm slowly building a position in KYN.

kaynefunds.com

I get the limited partnership structure for diversity, an array of lp's, and some sort of management of them by the fund managers (Kayne Anderson)(who may or may not be competent). For this they take their fee(s) of course. And they somehow deal with the amortization/depletion, etc. aspects of lp's. I get the net distribution in form of a dividend. And only a 1099 for taxes. That dividend looks like it's increasing. OTOH, KYN uses leverage and also can invest in non-public companies. KYN shows its stock price is below nav.

The current yield is about 7%, which, before subprime September, I would've considered okay. Now though with dividend yields for so many, many entities hitting 10%, there still might be great risk to buying KYN at current price.

For me, this thing might work. I'm in and adding on stock drops.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (29285)12/17/2007 2:44:21 PM
From: sportsman
   of 72241
 
Paul,
You might take a look at FEN
Sportsman

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To: sportsman who wrote (29286)12/17/2007 2:52:23 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 72241
 
Thanks. I didn't know about that one. I'll consider it and at least put it on my watch list for now.

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To: Brinks who wrote (29282)12/17/2007 3:35:36 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 72241
 
Thanks for the posting. Article hasn't done anything for ACAS stock today though. Adding a bit today to my ACAS position now as it drops to lows.

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To: Brinks who wrote (29282)12/17/2007 5:28:39 PM
From: Grommit
   of 72241
 
Normally motley fool is pretty lightweight, but that article was very good. I added more as well.

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To: gcrispin who wrote (29261)12/17/2007 6:24:15 PM
From: Patriarch
   of 72241
 
Stock has fell off the table during the past six months. Any reasons for that? Taiwan market is cheap, but not that cheap.

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From: rllee12/17/2007 6:40:34 PM
   of 72241
 
GLS - Genesis Lease Could Be a Highflier with a fat 10%+ dividend. Sounds like this is worth a closer look.

thestreet.com

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To: Patriarch who wrote (29290)12/17/2007 9:20:56 PM
From: gcrispin
   of 72241
 
Below is a chart of IMOS and some of its competitors. I included MU because its chart shows how it has mirrored the general decline of the price of DRAM chips right now.

finance.yahoo.com

This article generally sums up the pressures on DRAM and NAND chips.

marketwatch.com

That's my take on it. SPIL owns twelve million shares of IMOS. There has been speculation what might happen between the two companies. Here is the filing describing SPIL's ownership in IMOS.

sec.gov

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To: Asymmetric who wrote (29257)12/17/2007 10:58:57 PM
From: Asymmetric
   of 72241
 
Coldwater: CWTR - Limit Order Hit at $6.71.

stockcharts.com

Not sure I want the stock now that my order hit.

Noted following insider buys:

Dan Griesemer: Oct 17 30,000 @ $8.43
Mike Potter: Oct 17...... 13,000 @ $8.45
Frank Lesher: Dec 3... 10,000 @ $8.21

At 6.71, my purchase is 18% below lowest insider purchase
on Dec 3.

Admittedly Financial ratios not all that great.
However, stock appears oversold, and insider purchases
of $8+ gives me some hope of a dead cat bounce possibility.

CWTR did open 65 new stores this year.
Same store sales fell however about 10%.
But frankly, whose apparel sales didn't?
Chicos, Limited, Talbots, Gap?

Retail totally unloved.
Seems overreaction?

Would have been a great short 3 months ago.
Not sure who would want to short this after it
has fallen -44.3% over last 3 months and -71.6%
over last 6 months.

Plenty of blood on the street on this one.

Got this on a tight leash.

Live to fight another day is my present mantra.

- A.

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To: James Clarke who wrote (29234)12/17/2007 11:13:27 PM
From: Paul Senior
   of 72241
 
The aircraft lease stocks right now would be my favorites going into 2008. See article by Markham in rllee post.

As is the way I prefer to operate, I am building a position in a package of these. Specifically I've been buying GLS and to a lesser extent (so far), AYR.

The demand for aircraft apparently is still strong. Perhaps only a world recession will diminish it. (I am guessing and presuming here without real fact backup.) These companies seem to be able to get their funds for financing. Their customers are a diverse lot so the risk of a disastrous customer default (i.e. returning the planes before contract expires) is diffused.

Basically I'm looking for aircraft demand to continue, and the earnings (and dividends) of the companies to increase. While waiting, both companies provide a dividend yield over 10%. (And AYR just raised its dividend.) Consequently I am looking for a total return consisting of capital gain and dividend yield. The capital gain could come from investors bidding up the stock for it high dividend yield, growth in earnings, or some other factor(s).

Some caveats.

"favorite going into 2008". I'm looking to buy now through maybe early 2008. I'm not expecting results in 2008. With these stocks - as with many others I am buying - I am planting now with a view for harvesting in 2009/2010.

My "favorites". Generally my latest buys. For me, there's no relationship between "favorite" and "best performance". Sometimes my "favorites" work out; sometimes they do not. My best performers have always been stocks that were a surprise to me, and if I remember right, have never been my favorites at the time I bought them.

"for it's high dividend yield". I considered 8% high several weeks ago; now many of my stocks are at 10%, several 12%. So it's quite possible selling in AYR, GLS might continue and could drive their "high yield" even much higher.

finance.yahoo.com

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