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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (28170)9/21/2007 9:58:45 AM
From: Spekulatius
   of 72180
 
Bill, I found the evidence posted on ascensioexposed.com indicating a relationship between you and Asensio pretty weak, but that's not why I posted this link. I did find a a note on the website that you are known for "Dire predictions etc." and some of you posts in SI indicate this as well. So I am guessing that you are playing the short side quite often.

You're an institutional money manager holding a million share block of BBY. You've been watching the bond market over the past few days, and the activity in PG, BUD, and MO.

I fail to see the relationship between BBY and the stocks you mentioned above except that they are in the consumer space. Physicists are no better than economicst to predict the stock market. The greatest Physicists of all, Isaac Newton, lost of lot of money in the South Sea Bubble.

Hence I try to avoid bubbles but i do look at numbers. BBY's numbers are good while the competition is bankrupting itself. That is bullish using my simple logic and I have a small bet in that I am right. If not I hope that some of my other bets using the same simple logic may be right.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (28176)9/21/2007 10:17:45 AM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 72180
 
I am not smart enough to dig too deeply on the macro side. IMHO, as should be obvious, on the micro side I'm bullish on BBY. I've traded BBY multiple times, all to the plus side. Some were nothing more than short term scalps.
I'm underwater very slightly now, but I think BBY will be a winner this holiday season.
Like Mr. Senior, I've been wrong many, many times before. Might I add, I'm sure I will be in the future.

One I've avoided (so far) is TLB. Anyone with an opinion on this falling knife? Looks like poor product mix, lack of execution, estimates revised steeply downward, plus doesn't have the BV support of the likes of a DDS.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (25617)9/21/2007 11:22:59 AM
From: Paul Senior
   of 72180
 
RTWI:

Adds a little confirmation today to this:

1. Valuation methodology seems correct for evaluating these businesses.

2. Purchase by several (3) thread members is often a positive.

3. Buy right and sit tight.

(4.) Takeovers (strategic acquisitions vs. hedge fund leverages) are not dead.

reuters.com

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To: gcrispin who wrote (28175)9/21/2007 11:33:44 AM
From: Madharry
   of 72180
 
Anything is possible, but listening to the previous ceo call only to see him depart a short time later left a very bitter taste in my mouth. He seemed very competent to me, and he was just another ceo out the revolving door. Also the properties maybe valuable but may not be so readily salable in this market. I somehow could see the properties being sold for a less than adequate price to other Stronach controlled entities under the pretext of these sales were neccessary to pay off debt. I just dont want to be involved in this one going forward, but good luck with it.

By the way if there are any mfcaf shareholders out there let me know.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (28176)9/21/2007 11:49:16 AM
From: Bill Wexler
   of 72180
 
BBY - well, you gentlemen certainly do have interesting points. but I think I'll
stick with my short thesis.

finance.yahoo.com

As I said, let's revisit BBY again in detail after one or two quarters have passed by, and
we get to see a little more evidence of the consequences of this currency devaluation.

In the meantime, I want to go on the record with my BBY trades:

Short BBY in the 50's also started a long position in GLD (gold)...11/13/2006

Message 23006054

Covered BBY in the low 40s....8/6/2007

Message 23766645

Calling BBY overvalued in the mid-high 40s, and made a general call about a pending secular bear market, beginning with
consumer retail ...9/19/2007

Message 23898969

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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (28180)9/21/2007 11:55:43 AM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 72180
 
You covered the BBY short in early August - have you shorted again?

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To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (28181)9/21/2007 12:05:20 PM
From: Bill Wexler
   of 72180
 
Not yet, though I'm sure you can short it here and do well. In developing a trading strategy for what I believe will be a secular bear market, I create a "hit list" of retailers starting at the top with those that are most susceptible to the housing bubble collapse...example: BBBY, I then go down the list.

By the way, i should also note that margin levels are in nosebleed territory, and short interest is relatively low. I've had absolutely no problems finding stock to borrow.

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To: pcyhuang who wrote (28169)9/21/2007 12:05:36 PM
From: MCsweet
   of 72180
 
pcyhuang,

I give you credit for hanging in there despite some negative board sentiment. Thank you for addressing my questions --- not enough for me to buy NFI, but I wouldn't be short it either.

Good luck with your investments.

MC

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (28096)9/21/2007 12:20:59 PM
From: Madharry
   of 72180
 
I sold my little ire today with a quick profit, a bit over 6%. it wasnt a big position and i decided i didnt want to get in the way of potential tax selling, and previously undiscovered minefields. wexler wants to avoid retailers, i want to avoid financials too for the time being, as i dont know what highly leveraged institutions are doing to beef up their profits but it has me concerned.

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To: Suma who wrote (27607)9/21/2007 12:55:40 PM
From: Wallace Rivers
   of 72180
 
I listened to the CMG founder on CNBC today, he was very impressive,
I then got a quote, and nearly puked, as it was well above par!

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