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   Strategies & Market TrendsValue Investing


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To: Bob Rudd who wrote (15637)4/6/2005 1:33:13 AM
From: Paul Senior
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SGR: Well, for those of us still with it, it looks like this year we've come back up from the valley:

finance.yahoo.com

Shaw's just had or is having a stock offering, and I assume that that has contributed to today's drop in the share price. I hope and expect the drop to be temporary, and I added a few shares today assuming I might correctly be seeing an opportunity.

We know the power market collapsed a few years back, almost taking Shaw down with it. Those problems are behind Shaw (I presume.) Business has come back, and I am hoping business continues to improve as we enter '06. I don't know the intracacies of Shaw's contracts (e.g customer cancellation clauses/terms, % completion accounting, fixed cost contract or not, etc.), but overall, the latest company p.r. from Monday looks promising to me:


"Shaw's backlog totaled $5.1 billion at February 28, 2005, with approximately $2.4 billion, or 46% of the backlog expected to be converted during the next 12 months. Approximately $2.6 billion, or 50%, of the backlog is in environmental the and infrastructure sector, primarily contracts with Federal government agencies and commercial entities; approximately $1.8 billion, or 35%, of the backlog is comprised of projects for energy industry customers, primarily nuclear and fossil fuel power plants; and approximately $0.7 billion, or 13%, related to projects for chemical process industry facilities."

Stock is now under $20. I'll try to hold 18-24 months to see if it might reach $30.

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To: Suma who wrote (21050)4/6/2005 1:33:46 AM
From: Lazarus
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if you give any credence to this sort of thing:

stockta.com

it still looks good.

Lazarus

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (21061)4/6/2005 9:33:23 AM
From: Grommit
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shame stocks! what a good term. i refuse to buy C or BAC due to widely publicized exec compensation issues. now i have a term for my behavior (or their behavior).

yahoo.reuters.com

grommit

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (21059)4/6/2005 1:06:07 PM
From: Paul Senior
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Spekulatius, timely move by you out of BUD! Poor earnings report out today, and stock down to new lows.

I'll add a few more shares to my losing position.

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From: hoyasaxa4/6/2005 2:23:33 PM
   of 70545
 
Pick for 18 years

Thanks for the comments, Paul! Working with my father in law in the real estate/ private equity business and no longer an equity analyst. Planning on invest 15K in each of the next 4 quarters in a different fund for our new little man. Leaning with first pick towards the Third Avenue Value Fund or the Vanguard S&P Index.

Noted my major positions in my last post. Centerpoint Energy probably my best pick for the next five years. Still holding Dale's CETV (sold half the position at 51, bought in high teens, low twenties, thanks Dale).

Mike B. and Dale and good old Jim C. are certainly good folks. This thread and Dales remain the only one's I look at regularly.

Interested also in any commentary on my "state of the world" rant.

All the best- HoyaSaxa

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To: hoyasaxa who wrote (21066)4/6/2005 2:37:40 PM
From: Dale Baker
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If history is any guide, buying and holding some Berkshire B (BRKB) shares for 18 years would probably be a good move. It's as good as just about any diversified big cap fund around.

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To: hoyasaxa who wrote (21066)4/6/2005 4:48:21 PM
From: Paul Senior
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hoyasaxa, more comments, Third Value, Excelsior

Third Value seems like an easy choice, but I'd pass on it. Marty Whitman's 80 years old. He was on Bloomberg for an hour this week - still sharp but slipping a bit; he has aged since I last saw him on TV. (Cripes, I'm slipping too. Ugh)
C. Jensen, his main(?) successor may be good, but may not be as good as The Master.

Check WSJ, 4/4 Quarterly Mutual Fund Review, pg. r4 article on John Keeley of Keeley Small-Cap Value. Family and friends of Keeley invest in this value and restructuring fund. Ten year annualized return of 17.4%, according to the article. No investment greater than 1.2% of assets. Has a high load fee though, which they might be considering reducing. (Possibly I've got my preferences in this suggestion more so than what you might be wanting - namely, I like the value aspect, the off-beat stuff (restructuring), the diversity, the family business (eats own cooking), and investment experience (Keeley's 64 years old)).

Also look at Torray fund. He makes concentrated buys with the view of holding his stocks ten years or more. (aside: He's been a buyer of BUD. Wonder what his opinion of it is now.)

All jmo, I'm no expert, and I am wrong a lot.

---------
CETV seemed too expensive to me and too hard to for me to figure - Sorry I missed that one. I am still holding all shares bought of LH though - your 11/'02 pick here.

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (21068)4/6/2005 6:23:06 PM
From: Madharry
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well i moved my portfolio around a little- sold some of crxl, added to MAXY CEGE DNDN at these levels.

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To: Carl Worth who wrote (20672)4/6/2005 6:36:20 PM
From: Paul Senior
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Carl Worth, regarding housing stock SPF: Fwiw, I'm considering upping my position a bit at this point.

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To: gcrispin who wrote (21057)4/6/2005 8:09:25 PM
From: James Perry
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gcrispin, I now have taken a close look at your choices mentioned in 2057, and agree that all have value. I will tuck a little of each into my portfolio, though in truth I believe Enpath is the one most likely to be a multi-bagger. I always buy with a long term view, but I look at my age and feel that I probably won't be able to wait for some of them.

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