Roger, I know for a fact that I'm shooting in the dark on this, and
could be totally wrong. There's not much information available on
MTS, and even less on C. Mer, so I'm making certain assumptions
(pulling them out of a place where the sun don't shine).
My basic premise is that MTS is 1% or less than the value of C. Mer.
So, if there's a big player holding, say $100 million of Mer, the
MTS dividend is worth $1 million, so I view MTS as the tail on the
dog. Actually, I'd rather have Jim be correct on this.
We'll probably get a better handle on this soon. I'm sure there will
be lots of discussion about it on the earnings conference call. In
the meantime, my play on this situation will be to do nothing until
earnings are released. If earnings are bad, management can use this
dividend to "demonstrate" that they are "doing something about the
situation". But, if there is no acquisition forthcoming, then, IMO,
the risk of the stock tanking because of new shareholders dumping
their distribution is going to be pretty high, even if the earnings
are half way decent. Of course, a buy out would void this scenario,
but I'm assigning it a very low probability.
Is there any set date for earnings yet?
Carl |
