To be honest, I have kind of given up on playing the DJX. I shoot for individual stocks. AAPL, CPQ, RXSD and ATHM are my favorites and have done me well so far this year.|
The problem with the DOW is that it represents a broad cross section of businesses and some are and will be hit by the Asian flu and some not. Kind of rocky predicting who and how much. Basically, anybody that sells big to that market is hurt some because the people over there have no money. Caterpillar and people with big iron/construction stuff are getting orders cancelled because governments have no money and therefore must cancel their state projects. Food guys like ADM are getting orders cut because of the same reason. The impact is not super great because USA taxpayers are bailing the ship as it takes on water (US Gov. is buying the food ADM can't sell, World Bank (taxpayers) pays off US banks bad loans, etc.). Also, there really wasn't that much cash there in the first place (they were primarily exporter countries not importers).
The long run (1999+) looks super rosy, though, because we are forcing these countries to create business laws and bankrupt some businesses (banks included) that politicians simply use as a front to hide cash they steal from taxpayers and foreign aid. Won't get them all and dictators will survive but it will be a new ball game.
So the bottom line to me is that most businesses will not be hit but the dow is not very predictable and it is best to stick with stocks that are nowhere near the problem. ATHM is an example and a lot of others.