Your longterm feeling that there will be at least one "big" drop in the dow this year makes sense and I'm quite sure you'll make a buck or two on that one. Shouldn't be that far out either.. although not as bad as the last one, I think this coming earnings round will have it's share of warnings to shake things up a bit.
My style of trading DJX options is fairly short term .. I tend to move in and out with the day-to day trend movements, but certainly not the hour to hour moves.. that's way too much energy needed.
I'm now watching DJX for a firm reversal. The charts (60-day) show a strong over-bought condition that is due to pull back soon. A bit of a hint to this was seen yesterday.. and today we're done 48 points now and falling intraday. If we drop below 8300 on the close that should be my "Buy Puts" indicator.. looking at March Puts now.
Oh well, back to work, and back to watching the Dow..