---2024 export values expressed in U.S. dollars.
---Canada Exports to U.S.: $462 billion
---U.S. Exports to Canada: $435 billion
Conrad Black
I wish this latest round of bed-wetting from Andrew Coyne came as more of a surprise. But anyone afraid of annexation is suffering from an acute and irrational phobia best treated by spending less time on social media.
I've never opined on "the wisdom of Trump's strategic vision for us." Not least because he doesn't have a strategic vision for us, he's focused on his own country's strategy. My comments are largely on what Canada's response should be in light of the sobering economic correlation of forces. US exports to Canada represent 1.5% of US GDP. Canadian exports to the US are 20% of our GDP. US exports to Canada could go to zero, and while some northern states would be hit pretty hard, it wouldn't even slow the US economy enough to trigger a recession. On the other hand, if Canadian exports to the US went to zero, it would be a cataclysm.
As a fervent flag-waiving patriot and enthusiastic member of Team Canada, I'm afraid the tough-talk and posturing is not going to cut it. Unilateral insistence that we are entitled to the status quo simply because we've gotten accustomed to it, while refusing to negotiate with Trump because we purport to possess the moral high ground, instead, puffing out our maple leaf emblazoned chests in defiance of the "bad orange bully," is dim-witted bunk (Andrew Coyne's apparent stock-in-trade).
If someone in the beleaguered Liberal cabinet, with the authority to do so, called up the president and proposed two simple things, I suspect the trade war would end overnight.
Firstly, a modest earmark for stronger and collaborative border security measures (which would both satisfy Trump and redound to our benefit—see the Toronto police's seizure of 900kg of cocaine two weeks ago, smuggled over the US border, and note the vast majority of illegal firearms on Canadian streets come over the US border).
Secondly, make good on our long-overdue commitment as a member of NATO to contribute 3% of GDP to defense. Something we should be doing for decades.
That's it. My prediction is those two mutually beneficial "concessions" with a bit of finesse would be enough to resolve the issue overnight.
In my personal experience with Donald Trump, he is a tough negotiator, but I have never known him to reject a fair deal.
As a hedge against his supposed unpredictability, by all means respond with counter tariffs, but that's not a fight we can win. The only real counterpunch, such as there is one, is a combination of heeding Premier Danielle Smith's call to fast track domestic oil and gas pipelines, construct LNG terminals on each coast, and unshackle Canada's resource economy, while getting busy strengthening existing and developing new international trade relationships (CANZUK for starters). Unfortunately, it appears the Liberal government is gearing up to walk the plank, while Andrew Coyne cheers them on. |
