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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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From: OldAIMGuy11/25/2024 12:09:39 PM
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Zen Dollar Round

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Some earnings reports and some flattening of the S&P500's upward movement helped to contain market risk as we head into Thanksgiving Weekend. SignalPoint's MRI comes in up one point at 38 with an Oscillator of +4. The Oscillator suggests there's still upward risk pressure while the MRI itself is well into its Caution range.



From Value Line's "Appreciation Potential" we derive the v-Wave risk indicator. It shows 34 for the 3-5 year outlook, down a point from last week but still in its own Caution range.



There's a cumulative effect of these indicators being in the Caution range. It's best shown in a histogram such as this:

In this image we see the long trend of below median v-Wave while markets were down or flat being followed by nearly a full year of it being now above the median value and the extraordinary rise of the three indexes. Data from 1982 to Present show that these long trends should be heeded as being bullish or bearish. Think of accumulating risk as wear and tear on an investment machine. At 12 months above median risk, this machine is ready for a rebuild. Market Drivers aren't ready to pull into the Pits for maintenance at this point. Let's hope they're watching their temperature and oil pressure gauges!

As for my own activities, I've been following my Motto: "Buy from the Scared, Sell to the Greedy!" There has been a heavy emphasis on securing incremental sales of stock and fund inventories in recent months.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....
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