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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 602.94

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (60330)	10/10/2024 2:19:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 61416

It is still all about the CPI tomorrow and the PPI later this month. SP500 breaking out to new 52 week high. Either someone knows something about the CPI number or traders are being too optimistic. Volume was average so traders are not piling in on the trade as it can reverse in an instance if the CPI comes in hotter than expected. On the intraday chart we saw a steady climb in the early part of the day and levelled off to stay there through the rest of the session. The DOW following the pattern of the DOW but the volume was heavy and above average significantly. The DOW has been leading most rallies. It looks like someone is beating hard on a good CPI number. DOW transports still lagging but the intermediate trend is still up which is at least support of the DOW for now. It still needs to make a new 52 week high to confirm the recent highs in the DOW or the DOW rally is on shaky ground. Not that it can stay that way for months till it resolves one way or another. DOW utilities generating a short term sell signal setup. Note that a sell signal sets up higher interest rates in the long bonds. This is the one fly in the ontiment of the rally in the major indices. This index is an on intermediate sell signal and above to test and key support level. This level needs to hold or stronger selling will kick in. Because of the sell signal, it indicates bond traders think interest rates are going higher not lower in the short term ( 1 to 3 month). This is not supportive of new index highs or a sustained rally. Trade with care. USD has had a strong rally. Up 6 days in a row and not just starting a new impulse and on day 2 of that impulse. Expect strong resistance at $103.50. This has been a run to safety trade due to the Middle East. I have not idea if this rally hold in light of the US election being 24 days away. COMPQ moving in the right direction short term, but essentially waiting in the intermediate term. I think it is going to take good earnings to move tech out of the consolidation pattern. Similar call on semiconductors as COMPQ, but not the semis are weaker on a relative basis in terms of momentum. Russell 2000 testing a key support zone. There is not much interest in this sector right now. Financials barely setting a new 52 week high. Again not the sign of an economy is trouble by banks start to report later this week. Energy bouncing at the bottom of the short term upward channel. It failed a key resistance level recently so it needs to clear that level to go higher. For now still trading a range in the intermediate term. Gold did a short term sell signal setup. Another down day confirms the sell. Consumer discretionary negated the short term sell signal setup. It needs to set a new high to generate a new buy signal for a lot of traders. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

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