Silver Miners RRG...
Metals and miners moving with markets... some more than others...
Anticipation of rate cuts is a rational explanation for metals and miners higher... anticipating the near term future of re-inflation... but... reality... the stocks, at least, are more likely moving because "markets" on a vector higher with a slope well above neutral...
Miners recently don't track the market higher... unless and until X value in the slope fosters "spillover"... as it did yesterday in a big way...
As I watched the trade yesterday closely (playing zero day options on QQQ)... it was all about $ flow... a huge flow of $ coming in from "somewhere" later in the day...
Movers in the market are less about specifics in fundamentals changing [the most amazing potentials often being both almost unknown... and among the worst performers]... and more about "more" in linear relation to pre-disposition in the existing spread of capital... the "best" beaten down issues bouncing hard... the most over-looked issues continuing drift... in spite of any trends in "value" development. And, those with a bigger spend on (or management skills in) promotion... will tend to sustain market interest... moving more.
A rational argument re "producers" vs "explorers" given reality in timelines... the price of silver mattering in the near term... to producers like SILV, HL (up $1 in two days), PAAS (up $2 in two days), etc. That persists until the trend shift in the new bull is acknowledged as a long term issue... in a market willing to look ahead long term... ? A massive find... starting from proof, at least still 8 years away from production... or maybe 12 years, or 20, given "permitting" and "politics" ? What does today's price have to with anything ?
They'll begin to move when the producers begin raking it in faster than they know what to do with... and are forced to go shopping...
The "sweet spot"... still, always, in the unknowns that are "near" producers not quite there yet, or smaller past producers, or failed producers, those perpetually losing money... as metals prices rising suddenlt, unexpectedly, drag them kicking and flailing from deep in the red to barely in the green... prices shifting in a few months from "liquidation value" assuming BK imminent... to having a respectable multiple when money gets made, again, after a long hiatus...
The long running bear has been bad enough... that today that probably defines "most" miners... ? Hecla, PAAS, are still losing $ ? They may have bounced nicely off long term lows... but... future prices versus past prices adjusted for inflation suggest... what in the future ?
FNLPF is a particular case. Huge producer... profitable, P/E 21... but buried in debt. Higher prices will have them dig out faster... and then... with debt paid down... ??? Laggards... may need a push to shift market momentum in perception... ? Still trading nearer the lows of 2015, 2019, than the highs of 2016, 2020 ?
DSVSF fell below where it was in mid February... and in 3 days is now back to where it was mid-March...
"Soft landing" ahead... according to markets today. Chatter on MSNBC today says: strength of the move higher indicates a new uptrend starting... tech is back... "clues of bottoming" in chip stocks... ??? LOL!!!
"Pent up demand for mortgages"... means Fed next week will "open the floodgates" to a real estate boom ?
I expect a shorter term move... that may end tomorrow... or next week with the Fed... or soon after with black swans landing... or some event re-focusing market participants on reality... as "strong performances" being spun... still deliver "less than expectation" in earnings... as recession "baked in" now accelerates.
And I think miners moving with the markets now... likely means moving lower with the market again, too...
Good trades happening... trade well... take profits... grow the stash of dry powder...
RRG's: suggest we're at/near trends turning...
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