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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (59925)	9/10/2024 2:14:31 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 60349

Index update The major indices got the counter rally we expected. The key is whether the rally can string more than one day together or this is a dead cat bounce. The heatmap shows mostly great on the day which is a positive. SP500 bounced as expected after 4 down days in a row. The bounce was in the 1 percent range which is close to the norm. It need to string together multiple days to get more believers into the market. DOW bounced a day early, but being one of the leader sectors for the last rally it was not out of character. We may be in the late part of an economic cycle with favors commodities and consumer stables. DOW transports following the direction of the DOW supporting the move. The lack of a new 52 week high still makes the DOW high suspect. Severe crash when the recession bites???? DOW utilities still supporting the rate cut story. Short term long bond traders also believers. If the USD can get above 101.70 at least one support level will be above the recent low and 52 week low. Otherwise the story of staying away from USD denominated assets remains intact. By my system the COMPQ is just stopping short of the long term sell signal. The next few days are critical for this index and the tech sector. Semiconductor sector already on a confirmed sell signal. It has to get above 229 to get traders interested in the sector again. Russell 2000 trying to bounce but still on a short and intermediate sell signal. Essentially risk off for now. Financials need to set a new 52 week high soon to maintain the current upside momentum. Energy test the bottom of the channel of the intermediate sideways trend. Interestingly the long term trend is still up modestly. Gold still waiting. Consumer discretionary in waiting pattern short term. Intermediate and long term still up but the intermediate could turn into a sideways pattern soon. Again the economy is not breaking down but some sectors are weak. Whether more sectors break down or the weak sector stablized determines whether we get a soft landing in 9 to 12 months after the rate cut.

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