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Granted, there is no "shortage" of oil and gas... or of any other mineral... There is only either 1. a shortage induced by prices insufficient to stimulate production, or 2. a shortage induced by policy, interference with markets generating shortages.
So, determining the probable path of prices... is about divining both the impacts of market forces (as the real economy is a massive variable) AND calculating the impacts of policy fostering market disruptions... or not.
A couple of things worth noting...
They address China's breathtaking pace of conversion of transport from diesel to LNG... and point out that element in relation to the implication in measurable impact on diesel consumption... then totally fail to address what that large scale deflection in the balances means... in relation to China's increased consumption of LNG... that "should" compensate for (some of) the decline in diesel demand ?
That may not be the oversight it seems... if the shift only masks the nature of shrinkage in "other" LNG demand... as China's economy accelerates its decline... tipping from "recession" and "disinflation" into an accelerating descent into depression and active deflation...
I don't know what reality is in Chinese LNG markets... but, prices in Asia should provide a reality check ?
Similarly... they dismiss price impacts in the U.S. resulting, now, from a rapid ramp up now accelerating the export of LNG... again in a meaningful and market relevant quantity... which they excuse as irrelevant... only because a judge in the Northeast refused to allow licensing of 3 new LNG plants... which would take a decade or longer to become real even with lesser interference ?
They have the (obvious) in U.S. politics mostly right... although... fail to acknowledge that "drill baby drill" under Trump... would also be particularly unlikely to mirror Biden/Harris in refusing to boost the national income exporting products the markets need... by sustaining their policy in hutting down LNG exports?
I think they're wrong on Nat Gas and LNG... at least in degree.
Some of that appears to be error in expectation tied to "substitution" of gas for oil... as if belief that oil and gas prices "should" behave similarly because "both are energy"... means they will. That's a significant error... as the nature of the markets and distribution for the two products are quite different...
Oil prices WILL decline as the global economy tips from recession into depression...
Gas prices are already on the low side of potential... with multiple factors suggesting "higher" is likely... no matter who wins the election... as U.S. LNG production that is already built and ramping up now... begins impacting flows at the same time as seasonal demand shifts occur...
Politics, for now, continues to require that some measure of "price suppression"... and the deliberately unreliable reporting of statistics in supply, demand, storage and flows used in enabling it... will continue... Election outcomes might alter that influence... with potentially dramatic impact... prior to shifts in policy fostering both increases in production and exports.
They miss another "Trump Trade" potential inherent in their discussion... as "drill baby drill" may reduce oil prices as supply increases... but it won't do that without first boosting oil field services...
They also miss that lower prices stimulating consumption and economic growth... will mean both rising "flows" in the near term... and future growth in demand raising prices again at higher rates of production. Oil companies don't much benefit from higher prices and lesser flows that continue to decline ? More if the systems are scaled to function economically at larger scale and higher flow rates... with higher prices thus preventing sustaining the infrastructure and capacity necessary for sustaining economic growth ?
Not every element of market function is defined by supply, demand and price, alone. Engineering limits and efficiency matter too... ignorance of which generates huge errors in expectations... [with "and a miracle happens here" as policy requirement... see "Green New Deal"] as reality generally doesn't have simple "on / off" switch functions.
