Push converges to shove.... maybe...
Are the BRICS going to announce their new payment system "going live"... ready, ready, "now" ?
Or, their new alternative currency... partially backed by reserves of gold at some convenient fraction ?
Rumor was... they were set to do that in August... ? But...<checks calendar> ??? <queue crickets chirping>.
What we saw instead was... Xi going MIA for a month following the plenary session... and not much else.
Note that in context of and relation to the BIS efforts to enable immutable alternatives to use of essentially worthless debt instruments as the primary foundation of the global economic system... the "BRICS-led" effort is a newly created "potential" that exists parallel to its predecessors... and is intended to be poised as "in competition with" the existing systems. But, the BIS effort is essentially agnostic to those elements ?
If gold is going to replace paper as that "foundational element"... restoring gold to the role it has held throughout history, pre-WW II, or pre-Nixon... that's not obviously a change that confers any obvious or unique competitive advantages in itself... much less in empowering any "new" alternative as some new monopoly ? It does more the opposite... in restoring a universal standard that is not an intrinsic monopoly that is able to be controlled... that enables some unique advantage in monopoly control of money ?
That competition... the dirty shirts duking it out in the back behind the laundry... occurs more or less independent of those "higher level" functions related to agreements re re-monetizing gold ? There's going to be a "reset"... we just don't know yet... how the one change occurring might relate to... or occur independently of... change occurring in other things, too ???
In any case... it has been Russia taking the lead in fostering the new BRICS alternative payments system...
So... its worth noting... while not pretending there's no relationship between the two...
How are things are going in Russia... in relation to the war... and payments ?
The war: clearly shifting to advantage Ukraine for now.
The only thing I see preventing Russia being rapidly destroyed at an accelerating pace right now... are western restrictions that work to protect Russia... both by limiting Ukraine's access to resources and by limiting its use of longer range weapons. But, Ukraine appears to be on the cusp of fielding, in numbers, low cost domestically produced alternatives that are likely to obviate the benefit to Russia of the western restrictions. Ukraine is also constrained by resource limits, as the west are reluctant or unwilling to provide what they'd need to do more than sustain the fight in place... until Russia exhausts itself.
It's a mindlessly stupid "plan"...
However, Ukraine is increasingly proving capable of slipping the noose... to fight its own fight rather than the one Russia (and the west ?) wants... while innovating in ways that both overcome resource limits imposed by the west, and obviate the point of the limits...[ resulting in greater risks of escalation, perhaps... but, escalation.. to what end... with what real threat in a greater risk ?]... advantaging Ukraine by improving its capabilities over time. The war is increasingly putting Russia at greater risk of outright failure... on the battlefield... and, increasingly... economically, politically, systemically...
For Russia, that means its continued existence is left dependent on its (own reliance on) expectations about western ability or willingness to constrain the fight... to Russia's advantage. Russia's failure to provide a defense in Kursk is "an instance"... built on expectation Ukraine should respect borders in a way Russia does not... to keep the fight in Ukraine... conducted on Russian terms... to Russian advantage... for no obvious reason ? It is not the only instance in which that structure in dependencies... and potential for error in expectations... exists ?
Kursk... or its proper exploitation... should have brought the war to a quick end, already. It may not... only as the west will limit Ukraine's ability to fully exploit its victories in the ways they otherwise might. But, the dynamic is shifting, still, in result of Ukraine... showing it has a learning curve that Russia does not... and becoming dramatically, dangerously, better over time. Russia mindlessly persists in trying "more"... making the meatwave bigger... proving only that they cannot "win" in Ukraine... but can lose in Russia. In the ebb... that likely requires that Putin will not survive long... as that's how dictatorships tend to work in fostering change... if the effort to restore the flow fails.
Where it goes from here... perhaps dependent on nothing else as much as it is the outcome of the U.S. elections. Kamala "wins"... and perhaps expect more of the same only more so... which is still not "Russia winning"... or "Russia losing"... rather than continuing in wasting itself. Trump wins... and its more likely its over in shorter order... NOT as some may expect because Trump ends support leaving Russia succeeding in its takings... and leaving Europe to be Europe... but more likely as "withdrawing the limitations" that foster the imbalances required for endlessly sustaining the war... Odds are "more of the same" for another year in any case...
Payments:
RUSSIAN Payments Collapse
The current basis... is addressing companies in China with each acting to sustain businesses that are being specifically threatened... not a function of overt changes in direction being imposed as policy through mandates by China's leadership ?
Its been an issue since May...
US Says China Must Choose Between Putin and West
That's been left as an open ended "pause in the conversation"... for as long as China demurred in replying.
It doesn't mean we won't be seeing "unexpected" policy shifts occur in the future... when China does opt to act ? But... it wasn't really left as a question, back in May ?
Putin and Xi pledge a new era and condemn the United States
Actions since May, too... leave no doubt how China intended it would respond ?
If you missed it...
August 23 Sullivan heads to Beijing to address concerns about Russia ties, South China Sea tensions
presented here with a lot of spin applied... as... a chat with the military.... and in China's version crafted for U.S. public consumption... or a bit longer view of " what they say"... while we wait to see what they actually choose to do... next...
But... China can't have it both ways much longer...occasionally "making nice" in public while playing both sides... in a game of "let's you and him fight"...
A cynic might see it as... "at least the stakes are getting smaller"... as the U.S. now finally joins the crowd... as the entire global economy collapses into dysfunction...
China using Russia to constrain the U.S., to "pin us down" in Europe... to leave them with a free hand to act as they might prefer in Asia (including in the Russian far east)... appears it has broadly failed. Russia is succeeding only in proving itself increasingly incompetent... while dramatically degrading those capabilities they did have prior to committing them to destruction... leaving only Russia being left more at risk in its position in Asia, now, than they were before.
But... without following through on commitments it made to Russia and the BRICS... or deliberately changing course in its purposefully fostered conflicts with the west... when those two choices appear they are completely incompatible with each other ?... China appears it is committing to growing isolation, sustained failure, increasing irrelevance and persistent decline...
But... of course... enabling a new BRICS payment system and a new BRICS currency regime... aren't "the same thing" as committing to materially support the Russian war against the west... if there isn't a war ?
But, there... the nature of the real interest... in enabling aggression against one's neighbors (but, you go first)... is fully exposed as conflicting with "the opposite" in "self interest"... posed in the propaganda...
From here... things appear set to become uglier... fast... even without it leading to... or providing cover for... the choice to expand the still limited conflicts ongoing now... into more general conflict...or more new and specific instances of conflict... imposing the same result.
FWIW... I don't see the diplomacy... succeeding... not even in masking the bared fangs... |
