My mid-year review of GERN
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap is $2.52B was $1.15B)
Geron (GERN) has been working on highly innovative biotech for decades. Decades! Finally, the FDA has officially approved Geron's blood cancer treatment. They will probably start trying to treat other types of cancer, too. One estimate is that the treatment will cost over $100,000 which is large compared to many drugs, but is meeting an unmet need, and it may be a lower overall cost. One bit of specifity is that patients may now experience "24 weeks of freedom from the burden of red blood cell transfusions". (https://trimbathcreative.net/2024/06/07/geron-approved/)
Years, decades ago, Geron had a diversified portfolio of innovative and somewhat controversial treatments that could fight cancer by convincing certain cells to die, and fight auto-immune disorders by allowing certain cells to live. From that broad range of possibilities they've narrowed down to blood cancer.
The good news for stockholders is that within the previous six months the stock has risen from ~$2 to ~$5. Such news can generate greater premiums, but dilution has so reduced the value of the shares that the premuim may already be built in.
If the treatment can be applied to other ailments, then a multiplier may be appropriate, but the investing market may wait to see if the medical industry accepts and encourages its use.
This is also the era of hyperbolic claims of price appreciation. If there is irrational exuberance, I may sell at least some shares.
My experience with the first occurrence of Dendreon (DNDN, trimbathcreative.net dampens my enthusiasm. They had an FDA-approved cancer vaccine, were actively undermined, the bad guys were found guilty, but the shareholders lost their money, or at least I did. Hopefully, that won't happen this time.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold. I bought more after selling my house. I could buy more, but I expect I'll wait until I hear about Geron's plans for expansion.
(Other commentary and stocks at: trimbathcreative.net
& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube youtu.be ) |
