NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!!

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From: Elroy	6/6/2024 4:55:10 PM
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NGL reported their March Q and fiscal year 2024 (ends March) results. EBITDA missed badly. They affirmed at least $645m EBITDA for FY24 on Feb 8th, and today delivered $601m. Ouch. Water EBITDA was $508m, which is slightly above guidance. Their water business is going great, something in the other two less profitable business lines is not. The forward guidance is Ok - EBITDA to grow to $665m (up 10% from the disappointing fiscal 2024), but Cap Ex to be ~$210m. Water EBITDA to grow to $55m (up 10%). They missed last year's EBITDA guidance, so who knows whether we can count on this year's EBITDA forecast. They announced a $50m unit repurchase. Cap Ex is eating up a lot of free cash flow, but I guess that's OK as long as it delivers EBITDA growth over time. I'm not sure if this report and guidance moves the units in either direction. The March Q miss is disappointing, but the key business (Water) did a bit better than expected, it's going to be 85% of EBITDA in the current year, so, who really cares about the other two businesses? Then again they are both massive, and can eat up EBITDA (as just happened) if they stumble. Hmmm, lets see. For the upcoming year. $665m EBITDA minus $232m interest on $2.9 billion 8.25% long term debt. $123m preferred stock dividends $10m interest on the line of credit (maybe there's $100m on the revolver now? Not sure) -------- -$365 cash obligations = $300m cash flow minus $210m Cap Ex = $90m unused cash minus $50m unit repurchase (maybe) = $40m cash with no place to go. ------ Ok, I guess it's a "build out the system for future growth" year, and buy some cheap units.

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