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Technology Stocks : Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Chat bots - ChatGPT
NVDA 130.50+2.4%1:06 PM EDT

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From: Thomas M.5/18/2024 5:36:35 PM
   of 4703
Arvind Narayanan:
AI scaling — it's going to run out; the question is when. I think more likely than not, it already has.

There are 2 main barriers to continued scaling. One is data. It's possible that companies have already run out of high-quality data, and that that's why the flagship models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google all have strikingly similar performance (that hasn't improved in > 1y)

The 2nd, and IMO bigger barrier to scaling is that beyond a point, scale might lead to better models in the sense of perplexity (next word prediction) but might not lead to downstream improvements (new emergent capabilities).
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