AI scaling — it's going to run out; the question is when. I think more likely than not, it already has.

There are 2 main barriers to continued scaling. One is data. It's possible that companies have already run out of high-quality data, and that that's why the flagship models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google all have strikingly similar performance (that hasn't improved in > 1y)

The 2nd, and IMO bigger barrier to scaling is that beyond a point, scale might lead to better models in the sense of perplexity (next word prediction) but might not lead to downstream improvements (new emergent capabilities).