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Gold/Mining/Energy : NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!!

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From: Elroy2/8/2024 10:05:22 PM
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NGL reported pretty much in line with their pre-announced guidance. They confirmed EBITDA for fiscal 2024 (ends March) will be $645m. Since there is only one quarter to go, it means March Q EBITDA should be $182m.

They said on the call that they will sell some assets before March 31st (some real estate) and then they will pay the second half of the arrearage soon after that. That will make the preferred stock current.

Plans for fiscal 2025 (ends March 2025) will come out in the next earnings call, in early June. So we gotta wait for forward guidance beyond the current quarter.

I think they plan to use operating cash flows going forward to repurchase the preferred series D and growth Cap Ex, and perhaps common unit distributions. The series D preferred expires in summer 2027, so they've gotta buy them back before then. Future debt reduction spending will go toward the D's. Growth Cap Ex will also become a focus. Whether there will be any cash for common unit distributions after those two efforts remains to be seen.

All in all it was an OK and in line report. I think the next catalyst for the stock price will be EBITDA guidance for next year. How much will they grow? Not sure, but even without growth $645m EBITDA is quite a lot, so they can do well with that level of EBITDA, but of course more is better.
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