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Gold/Mining/Energy : NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!!

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From: Elroy1/25/2024 10:33:47 PM
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I think NGL one year from now may look a lot like GEL looked one year ago.

Here's GEL's Q4 2022 earnings release:

genesisenergy.com

Trailing EBITDA = $717m
leverage = 4.14x

LT Debt = $2.85b
Line of credit = $200m
Preferred stock = $890m

Common unit distribution = 60 cents per year.

By this time next year, NGL will have almost exactly the same metrics, other than perhaps the distribution (who knows when they start one again??).

At this time last year GEL traded between $9 and $11. Methinks NGL will trade around the same level within a year from today.

The key question for NGL is whether their EBITDA is going to rise from the ~$650m level of the current fiscal year toward the $710m level next fiscal year. If so, the models are too close for NGL to stay down near to $5 rather than $10.
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