my semi-annual exercise of GERN
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap is $1.15B was $1.63B)
For decades I've been able to simply describe Geron because so little changed. Now, they've finally announced news "Geron announces FDA acceptance of New Drug Application for imetelstat for the treatment of transfusion-dependent anemia in patients with lower risk." Simple descriptions run into detailed progress reports that sound encouraging while also being hard to understand. Their web site says it better. "Our ambition is to change lives by changing the course of blood cancer." And, "We’re committed to bringing the potential power of telomerase inhibition to patients with imetelstat." That's clearer. Let's see if my amateur understanding suffices to describe the situation.
Years, decades ago, Geron had a diversified portfolio of innovative and somewhat controversial treatments that could fight cancer by convincing certain cells to die, and fighting auto-immune disorders to allow certain cells to live. From that broad range of possibilities they've narrowed down to blood cancer.
The good news is in that first paragraph, "Geron announces FDA acceptance of New Drug Application..." That sort of news could apply a premium to a stock price. I looked forward to it. It hasn't happened. There are several possibilities for why it didn't.
- The premium is already included.
- No one knows, or no longer cares about news from Geron. I've held the stock for over two decades. Few folks have that patience.
- News in the industry may lower confidence.
- Dilution has so reduced the value of the shares that the premuim is built in, but share price doesn't show it because there are so many shares in the market.
- People want more proof of the technology, or the market.
- The product may be considered too expensive (ala DNDN from ten years ago.)
- Competition may have caught up to them.
I don't know. My style of investing involves some research, but nothing detailed until it matters. As I am a LTBH shareholder, I do not plan to trade the stock; so, there's less urgency for me to track the details. My curiosity may inspire to bring my understanding up to date.
New medical treatments have the potential to be used for more than one ailment. Geron's trails are targeted at blood cancer, but if it proves successful the company can expand and the stock price can reflect the multiplier effect.
Speculation is easy, but also moot. The FDA is the power, and they've accepted the New Drug Application. It is possible that a long wait may be over.
And...
(Mostly a copy&paste for my biotech investments with the names changed)
One hurdle with biotechs is making sure the treatment is reliable, effective, safe, and commercially viable. Another hurdle with innovative treatments is gaining FDA approval is a reasonable time. Treatments for unmet needs have pressure for early approval. Innovative treatments have pressures encouraging the FDA to be cautious. We may soon see how the technical, political, medical, and societal pressures affect Geron's treatment and Geron's viability and GERN's performance.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold. I bought more when they mentioned specific years for clinical trials and approval goals.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. trimbathcreative.net
& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube
youtu.be )
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