A note on FEMY -
Earlier in the week I noted "the usual" in what looked like shorts playing with the stock. Running it up ion light volume in the after hours in order to take it back down... and, unusually large blocks trading...
Did a quick look around and, sure enough, it was a simple matter to find "articles" written in obscure online publications purporting to be "reporting news" on FEMY... the gist of which was that the news re the FDA clearance to market their products "was not the same thing as" an actual FDA "approval"... which meant they still had significant barriers ahead of them before they could market the "cleared" product...
That's total BS, of course... but it was widely flogged BS being posted around the internet... by the same people... at a significant enough pace in the repetition in a series of obscure places... somehow making it onto the relevant lists in search engines... that anyone searching for the ticker was sure to find that "news" among the first hits...
A couple days on... I can't find any of that stuff now...
And, FEMY put out PR on the 4th, not explicitly addressing or debunking it... but... yeah... they're proceeding to flog their wares as its usually done... at a professional conference for docs: "will be exhibiting at the annual meeting of the American Society of Reproductive Medicine (ASRM): “The Past, The Present, and The Pipeline”, being held in New Orleans, Louisiana from October 14-18, 2023."
And, it is more interesting, to me, that what they have isn't "just" the one new product, but they have the new one that pairs up with other already approved products to deliver a suite of new product, along with (also already approved) supporting products... The suite of products, it seems, are designed to be used in combination... with the new products all taken together providing a greatly improved system... at greatly lower cost.
OK. That's nice...
But, the key takeaway, I think, is that while their prior product development efforts were both necessary, and technically successful, and each "approved" as stand alone products, they were not sufficient to enable success in marketing...
So, the real "news" about the FemaSeed product... is that, with the latest approval, the entire suite of products now suddenly makes sense... which also makes sense of their prior lack of success... due lack of effort... apparent in the marketing...
Prior experience suggests to me that... a properly led marketing campaign isn't a source of huge risks... and should be easily "doable" well inside the burn rate... maybe look for issues arising in manufacturing and distribution more than marketing ? But, there, I run out of steam as haven't done the DD in that deep a dive to have ready answers about "can they"... And, still, another risk to consider in this not being their only project driving the burn rate... so, perhaps, look for a proof of success in selling it... and then look for some sort of partnership deal in manufacturing, distribution and sales... which might earn them less $ in the short term... but might convert it from a capital sink to a profit center a lot faster... without poisoning its future potential.
I don't know what to expect from Oct 14-18 in terms of short term bottom line impacts...
The usual would be "nothing" for a week or two after... up to a month... but people will be paying more attention to the market reception than anything else...
Chart says... Sept 25 to 28 was a completed pattern.... a mini "cup and handle"... and an accumulation pattern. Sept 29 up to today is a repeat of that pattern... only half way through it now, after a week... so, give it another week and perhaps we see it higher, again... and that would be... Oct 13... the day before the event in New Orleans begins...
I'll add it to the "ticking clocks" column... and let's see what happens... |
